PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 3–0 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli won 3–0.

Shots
1614
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.241.08
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – 1. FC Union Berlin): shots 16–14, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.24–1.08, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.66 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC St. Pauli have a visible home split

moderate

FC St. Pauli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots14 shotsFC St. Pauli 16 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsFC St. Pauli 5 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.24 xG1.08 xGFC St. Pauli 1.24 xG, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.08 xG
  • Possession44%56%FC St. Pauli 44%, 1. FC Union Berlin 56%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersFC St. Pauli 5 corners, 1. FC Union Berlin 7 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls15 foulsFC St. Pauli 6 fouls, 1. FC Union Berlin 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli · 41′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Leite · 1. FC Union Berlin · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.04 xG · goalRobert Skov · 1. FC Union Berlin · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJames Sands · FC St. Pauli · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYorbe Vertessen · 1. FC Union Berlin · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 54′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 82′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 41′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 23′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 33′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 19′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNoah Weißhaupt · FC St. Pauli · 75′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 51′ · 0.13 xG · goalTom Alexander Rothe · 1. FC Union Berlin · 84′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 51′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 31′ · 0.16 xG · goalJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 37′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJordan Siebatcheu · 1. FC Union Berlin · 49′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 69′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.21 xG. 1. FC Union Berlin: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.07 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Morgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 31′Morgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 51′Danel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 1.21 xG · 1. FC Union Berlin 1.07 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
0Draws
11. FC Union Berlin
1. FC Union Berlin — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli19 matches1. FC Union Berlin19 matches
0.89 goals/match ▲Goals scored19/190.79 goals/match
1.11 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/191.47 goals/match
1.1 xG/match ▲Expected goals19/181.03 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots19/1812 shots/match
3.32 shots/matchShots on target19/18▲ 3.56 shots/match
43.4% ●Possession19/1841.8%
3.84 corners/matchCorners19/18● 4.83 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1813.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 19home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. Pauli1. FC Union Berlin
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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