PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Borussia Dortmund 3–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 3–1.

Shots
1812
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
2.780.81
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–1. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 18–12, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 2.78–0.81, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots19.2 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · 1. FSV Mainz 0511.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots14.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match14.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.7% ●PossessionBorussia Dortmund · 1. FSV Mainz 0549.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia Dortmund1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession60.7%49.2%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots12 shotsBorussia Dortmund 18 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 12 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsBorussia Dortmund 7 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.78 xG0.81 xGBorussia Dortmund 2.78 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.81 xG
  • Possession44%56%Borussia Dortmund 44%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 56%
  • Corners6 corners4 cornersBorussia Dortmund 6 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsBorussia Dortmund 10 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Julian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 83′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNikolas Veratschnig · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 13′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSilvan Widmer · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Jenz · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 54′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Jenz · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 4′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCarney Chukwuemeka · Borussia Dortmund · 84′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 14′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 46′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 42′ · 0.12 xG · goalPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 83′ · 0.14 xG · on targetKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 89′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 9′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′ · 0.16 xG · goalMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 72′ · 0.18 xG · goalAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 87′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedSalih Özcan · Borussia Dortmund · 57′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 70′ · 0.49 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 39′ · 0.94 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 18 shots, 7 on target, 2.80 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.83 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 39′Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 42′Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 72′Paul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 76′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 2.80 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.83 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Borussia Dortmund
2Draws
21. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–0
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
Borussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–2
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund27 matches1. FSV Mainz 0527 matches
1.78 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.67 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed27/27▲ 1.15 goals/match
1.77 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/271.43 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots27/2711.6 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target27/274.41 shots/match
60.7% ●Possession27/2749.2%
5.93 corners/match ●Corners27/274.48 corners/match
9.78 fouls/matchFouls27/2712 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 30 Mar 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia Dortmund1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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