PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin won 1–0.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.191.86
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Union Berlin beat VfL Wolfsburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Union Berlin – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 13–12, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.19–1.86, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.59 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shots1. FC Union Berlin 13 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shots1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG1.86 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.19 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.86 xG
  • Possession45%55%1. FC Union Berlin 45%, VfL Wolfsburg 55%
  • Corners6 corners4 corners1. FC Union Berlin 6 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls14 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 13 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

David Odogu · VfL Wolfsburg · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Tousart · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Ilić · 1. FC Union Berlin · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJanik Haberer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 26′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJanik Haberer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 36′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosip Juranović · 1. FC Union Berlin · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin · 2′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 11′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJakub Kamiński · VfL Wolfsburg · 52′ · 0.07 xG · on targetKilian Fischer · VfL Wolfsburg · 75′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 63′ · 0.10 xG · goalPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 42′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJanik Haberer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 21′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 5′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin · 2′ · 0.71 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Union Berlin: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.23 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.86 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Benedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Union Berlin 1.23 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 0.86 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Union Berlin
1Draws
2VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–0
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–1
VfL Wolfsburg — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin28 matchesVfL Wolfsburg28 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.5 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals27/28▲ 1.47 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots27/2812.5 shots/match
3.67 shots/matchShots on target27/28▲ 4.25 shots/match
40.7%Possession27/28● 45.9%
4.78 corners/match ●Corners27/284.61 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls27/2810.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Apr 2025, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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