Serie A · 2023Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Cagliari

LLLDW

2–1Full-time recap

Genoa

WDLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Cagliari	Genoa
Shots	12 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.85 xG/match	1.05 xG/match▲
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	1 corners/match	1 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Cagliari: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.84 xG. Genoa: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 0.84 xG · Genoa 1.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible home split

moderate

Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.2 shots/match▲ShotsCagliari · Genoa7.82 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Cagliari	Genoa	Baseline
Shots	12.2 shots/match	7.82 shots/match	12.1 shots/match
Shots against	12.5 shots/match	12.1 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari

0Draws

2Genoa

24 Apr 2022Genoa — Cagliari · Serie A1–0

12 Sept 2021Cagliari — Genoa · Serie A2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Genoa in 6 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 11/11▲1.09 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.45 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/110.68 xG/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/117.82 shots/match

12.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/1112.1 shots/match

3.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/112.73 shots/match

3.82 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲3.55 shots/match

41.9%●Possessionseason · 11/1140.3%

3.64 corners/match●Cornersseason · 11/112.36 corners/match

5.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/11▲4.64 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1111 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/1118%

55%Scoring frequencyseason · 11/11▲64%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari7.5

Genoa2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari31.7

Genoa17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari35

Genoa46.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari72.5

Genoa7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari52.5

Genoa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari15

Genoa2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari33.1

Genoa10

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Cagliari11 matchesGenoa11 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.09 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.45 goals/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals11/110.68 xG/match

12.2 shots/match▲Shots11/117.82 shots/match

3.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/112.73 shots/match

41.9%●Possession11/1140.3%

3.64 corners/match●Corners11/112.36 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls11/1111 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Cagliari6 matchesGenoa6 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match

2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.33 goals/match

1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.65 xG/match

15 shots/match▲Shots6/68.5 shots/match

3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match

42.5%Possession6/642.5%

3.5 corners/match●Corners6/61.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4