PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Fri, 10 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Genoa

DLLWL
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricGenoaHellas Verona
Shots16 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Expected goals1.71 xG/match▲0.24 xG/match
Possession49%51%●
Corners6 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Michael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsak Hien · Hellas Verona · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCaleb Ekuban · Genoa · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRidgeciano Haps · Genoa · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohan Vásquez · Genoa · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Pușcaș · Genoa · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBruno Amione · Hellas Verona · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCaleb Ekuban · Genoa · 43′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedStefano Sabelli · Genoa · 62′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFilippo Terracciano · Hellas Verona · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Hellas Verona · 78′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCaleb Ekuban · Genoa · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Genoa · 4′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMilan Badelj · Genoa · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKevin Strootman · Genoa · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMorten Frendrup · Genoa · 36′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Pușcaș · Genoa · 57′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRadu Drăguşin · Genoa · 44′ · 0.16 xG · goalMilan Badelj · Genoa · 62′ · 0.16 xG · on targetKoni De Winter · Genoa · 43′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedGeorge Pușcaș · Genoa · 58′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Genoa: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.71 xG. Hellas Verona: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Radu Drăguşin · Genoa · 44′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Genoa 1.71 xG · Hellas Verona 0.23 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa
1Draws
1Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona — Genoa · Serie A1–0
Genoa — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 1 · 5 too close

1.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/120.58 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/121.33 goals/match
0.76 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 12/120.61 xG/match
0.94 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 12/121.45 xG/match
8.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/12▲10.2 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 12/1214.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/123.08 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 12/125 shots/match
41%Possessionseason · 12/12●45.3%
2.67 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/12●3 corners/match
4.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 12/125.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1212.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/1225%
67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1250%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa2.5
Hellas Verona22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa16.7
Hellas Verona10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa60
Hellas Verona25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa2.5
Hellas Verona32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa22.5
Hellas Verona72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa2.5
Hellas Verona7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa9.4
Hellas Verona26.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Genoa12 matchesHellas Verona12 matches
1.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.58 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed12/121.33 goals/match
0.76 xG/match▲Expected goals12/120.61 xG/match
8.5 shots/matchShots12/12▲10.2 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target12/123.08 shots/match
41%Possession12/12●45.3%
2.67 corners/matchCorners12/12●3 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Genoa6 matchesHellas Verona7 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/70.43 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/7▲1.14 goals/match
0.88 xG/match▲Expected goals6/70.49 xG/match
8.5 shots/matchShots6/7▲9.43 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target6/72.43 shots/match
39.5%Possession6/7●48.6%
3.83 corners/match●Corners6/73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls6/712.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.34 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 10 Nov 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsGenoaHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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