Serie A · 2023Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lecce

LDDLL

2–2Full-time recap

Milan

WWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Milan
Shots	14 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.46 xG/match▲	1.11 xG/match
Possession	45%	55%●
Corners	3 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lecce: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.47 xG. Milan: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 1.47 xG · Milan 1.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Milan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.67 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible home split

moderate

Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.4 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.1%PossessionLecce · Milan●57%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Lecce	Milan	Baseline
Possession	46.1%	57%	50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce

1Draws

1Milan

23 Apr 2023Milan — Lecce · Serie A2–0

14 Jan 2023Lecce — Milan · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 9 · 4 too close

1.08 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 12/12▲1.67 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.17 goals/match

0.93 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 12/12▲1.42 xG/match

1.56 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.14 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/1212.3 shots/match

12.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/1212.9 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/12▲4.67 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲3.58 shots/match

46.1%Possessionseason · 12/12●57%

3.58 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/12●4.25 corners/match

3.83 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲3.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1211.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲33%

75%Scoring frequencyseason · 12/12▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce27.5

Milan87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce42.5

Milan66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce40

Milan55

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce67.5

Milan17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce87.5

Milan52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce12.5

Milan32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce48.1

Milan51.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lecce12 matchesMilan12 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.67 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.17 goals/match

0.93 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲1.42 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots12/1212.3 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4.67 shots/match

46.1%Possession12/12●57%

3.58 corners/matchCorners12/12●4.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lecce7 matchesMilan7 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.86 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.57 goals/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.37 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shots7/712.3 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.71 shots/match

47.1%Possession7/7●56.7%

4.14 corners/match●Corners7/73.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls7/711 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.76 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples12 / 12home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4