PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Lecce 2–2 Milan · Serie A

Lecce

LDDLL
2–2Historical match

Milan

WWLDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lecce and Milan drew 2–2.

Shots
1410
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.461.11
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lecce and Milan drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Lecce – Milan): shots 14–10, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.46–1.11, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Milan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.67 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible home split

moderate

Lecce's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.1%PossessionLecce · Milan● 57%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLecceMilanBaseline
Possession46.1%57%50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots10 shotsLecce 14 shots, Milan 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsLecce 5 shots, Milan 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.46 xG1.11 xGLecce 1.46 xG, Milan 1.11 xG
  • Possession45%55%Lecce 45%, Milan 55%
  • Corners3 corners1 cornerLecce 3 corners, Milan 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls16 foulsLecce 12 fouls, Milan 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hamza Rafia · Lecce · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLameck Banda · Lecce · 23′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTheo Hernández · Milan · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Lecce · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicola Sansone · Lecce · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Strefezza · Lecce · 23′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGabriel Strefezza · Lecce · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Milan · 14′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNicola Sansone · Lecce · 77′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 47′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNikola Krstović · Lecce · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Pobega · Milan · 58′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNoah Okafor · Milan · 64′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 24′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 38′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Blin · Lecce · 66′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLameck Banda · Lecce · 70′ · 0.14 xG · goalNicola Sansone · Lecce · 84′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 35′ · 0.20 xG · goalLameck Banda · Lecce · 39′ · 0.35 xG · on targetOlivier Giroud · Milan · 28′ · 0.41 xG · goalNicola Sansone · Lecce · 66′ · 0.43 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lecce: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.47 xG. Milan: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Nicola Sansone · Lecce · 66′Lameck Banda · Lecce · 70′Olivier Giroud · Milan · 28′Tijjani Reijnders · Milan · 35′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 1.47 xG · Milan 1.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Lecce
1Draws
1Milan
Milan — Lecce · Serie A2–0
Lecce — Milan · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lecce favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lecce12 matchesMilan12 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲ 1.17 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.42 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots12/1212.3 shots/match
3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 4.67 shots/match
46.1%Possession12/12● 57%
3.58 corners/matchCorners12/12● 4.25 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLecceMilan
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headLecce — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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