PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Monza

WWLDW
1–1Full-time recap

Torino

DLLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonzaTorino
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Expected goals0.96 xG/match▲0.95 xG/match
Possession44%56%●
Corners3 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Duván Zapata · Torino · 7′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLorenzo Colombo · Monza · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIvan Ilić · Torino · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanilo D'Ambrosio · Monza · 41′ · 0.02 xG · on targetGeorgios Kyriakopoulos · Monza · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Monza · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIvan Ilić · Torino · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLorenzo Colombo · Monza · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedValentín Carboni · Monza · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Monza · 56′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIvan Ilić · Torino · 55′ · 0.07 xG · goalNikola Vlašić · Torino · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sanabria · Torino · 15′ · 0.08 xG · on targetDuván Zapata · Torino · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWarren Bondo · Monza · 57′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sanabria · Torino · 80′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedValentín Carboni · Monza · 90′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLorenzo Colombo · Monza · 19′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Gagliardini · Monza · 43′ · 0.16 xG · on targetAndrea Colpani · Monza · 65′ · 0.20 xG · goalDuván Zapata · Torino · 37′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monza: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.95 xG. Torino: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Andrea Colpani · Monza · 65′Ivan Ilić · Torino · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 0.95 xG · Torino 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monza
1Draws
1Torino
Torino — Monza · Serie A1–1
Monza — Torino · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Monza favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Torino in 5 · 2 too close

1.08 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 12/120.83 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 12/121.17 goals/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 12/120.97 xG/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 12/12▲1.1 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 12/1210.6 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/12▲10.6 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 12/123.08 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/12▲3.83 shots/match
53.9%●Possessionseason · 12/1250.8%
5.58 corners/match●Cornersseason · 12/124.08 corners/match
4.58 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/12▲2.58 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 12/1211.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 12/12▲42%
67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 12/1258%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monza72.5
Torino47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monza56.7
Torino18.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monza43.3
Torino65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monza57.5
Torino12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monza32.5
Torino45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monza82.5
Torino27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monza61.9
Torino26.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Monza12 matchesTorino12 matches
1.08 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.83 goals/match
0.92 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.17 goals/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals12/120.97 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.6 shots/match
4.33 shots/match▲Shots on target12/123.08 shots/match
53.9%●Possession12/1250.8%
5.58 corners/match●Corners12/124.08 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls12/1211.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Monza6 matchesTorino6 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match
0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed6/61.5 goals/match
1.56 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.83 xG/match
15.5 shots/match▲Shots6/69.67 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.33 shots/match
54.2%●Possession6/648.7%
7.17 corners/match●Corners6/61.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls6/613.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Nov 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonzaTorino
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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