PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Roma 2–1 Lecce · Serie A

Roma

LWWWL
2–1Historical match

Lecce

LLDDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Roma won 2–1.

Shots
1515
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.120.84
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Roma beat Lecce 2–1. Recorded in this match (Roma – Lecce): shots 15–15, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.12–0.84, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible away split

moderate

Lecce's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.8 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.4% ●PossessionRoma · Lecce46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricRomaLecceBaseline
Possession54.4%46.2%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots15 shotsRoma 15 shots, Lecce 15 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsRoma 5 shots, Lecce 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.12 xG0.84 xGRoma 2.12 xG, Lecce 0.84 xG
  • Possession61%39%Roma 61%, Lecce 39%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersRoma 5 corners, Lecce 2 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls11 foulsRoma 18 fouls, Lecce 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Stephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHoussem Aouar · Roma · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLameck Banda · Lecce · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedValentin Gendrey · Lecce · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLameck Banda · Lecce · 67′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMohamed Kaba · Lecce · 77′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · Roma · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Dybala · Roma · 31′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 60′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Strefezza · Lecce · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEdoardo Bove · Roma · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Strefezza · Lecce · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 6′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarin Pongračić · Lecce · 54′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLameck Banda · Lecce · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Mancini · Roma · 68′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kaba · Lecce · 89′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 54′ · 0.12 xG · on targetStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 24′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 72′ · 0.18 xG · goalPaulo Dybala · Roma · 2′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedSardar Azmoun · Roma · 90′ · 0.19 xG · goalRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 90′ · 0.26 xG · goalRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 5′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.15 xG. Lecce: 15 shots, 4 on target, 0.81 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Sardar Azmoun · Roma · 90′Romelu Lukaku · Roma · 90′Pontus Almqvist · Lecce · 72′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 2.15 xG · Lecce 0.81 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Roma
1Draws
0Lecce
Lecce — Roma · Serie A1–1
Roma — Lecce · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Roma favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Roma11 matchesLecce11 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/111 goal/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed11/111.27 goals/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/110.88 xG/match
13.5 shots/match ▲Shots11/1112.1 shots/match
4.27 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/113.64 shots/match
54.4% ●Possession11/1146.2%
5.18 corners/match ●Corners11/113.64 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1113.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 Nov 2023, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRomaLecce
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headRoma — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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