PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Inter

WDWWW
2–0Full-time recap

Lecce

DDDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricInterLecce
Shots20 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target8 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals2.92 xG/match▲1.29 xG/match
Possession68%●32%
Corners16 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Antonino Gallo · Lecce · 27′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kaba · Lecce · 72′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLameck Banda · Lecce · 58′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKristjan Asllani · Inter · 87′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNikola Krstović · Lecce · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoan González · Lecce · 9′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLameck Banda · Lecce · 10′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHakan Çalhanoğlu · Inter · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Bisseck · Inter · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGabriel Strefezza · Lecce · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Darmian · Inter · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarko Arnautović · Inter · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Bisseck · Inter · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Augusto · Inter · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Barella · Inter · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Bisseck · Inter · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedValentin Gendrey · Lecce · 49′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYann Bisseck · Inter · 43′ · 0.07 xG · goalHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 59′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 53′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHamza Rafia · Lecce · 70′ · 0.10 xG · on targetHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 54′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMarko Arnautović · Inter · 11′ · 0.13 xG · on targetHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 87′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Pavard · Inter · 87′ · 0.15 xG · on targetFrancesco Acerbi · Inter · 89′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLameck Banda · Lecce · 26′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedMarko Arnautović · Inter · 22′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 18′ · 0.60 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Barella · Inter · 78′ · 0.64 xG · goalGabriel Strefezza · Lecce · 45′ · 0.75 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Inter: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.92 xG. Lecce: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.29 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Yann Bisseck · Inter · 43′Nicolò Barella · Inter · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Inter 2.92 xG · Lecce 1.29 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lecce have a visible away split

moderate

Lecce's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.75 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.75 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Inter show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Inter's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16 shots/match▲ShotsInter · Lecce12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricInterLecceBaseline
Shots16 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against9.94 shots/match13.8 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

weak

Inter's last-five shots average is below their season average.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match16 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Inter
0Draws
0Lecce
Inter — Lecce · Serie A2–0
Lecce — Inter · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 2 too close

2.41 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.12 goals/match
0.41 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.35 goals/match
2.15 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 17/170.97 xG/match
0.77 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/171.63 xG/match
16 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 17/1712.8 shots/match
9.94 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1713.8 shots/match
5.24 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/174.12 shots/match
2.76 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/174.94 shots/match
56.4%●Possessionseason · 17/1744.9%
5.88 corners/match●Cornersseason · 17/173.59 corners/match
3.35 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/174.76 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1713.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
71%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1712%
100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1776%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter87.5
Lecce17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter94.2
Lecce56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter94.2
Lecce30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter67.5
Lecce72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter17.5
Lecce92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter90
Lecce15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter73.1
Lecce57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Inter17 matchesLecce17 matches
2.41 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.12 goals/match
0.41 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.35 goals/match
2.15 xG/match▲Expected goals17/170.97 xG/match
16 shots/match▲Shots17/1712.8 shots/match
5.24 shots/match▲Shots on target17/174.12 shots/match
56.4%●Possession17/1744.9%
5.88 corners/match●Corners17/173.59 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.9 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Inter9 matchesLecce8 matches
2.56 goals/match▲Goals scored9/81 goals/match
0.56 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/81.5 goals/match
2.52 xG/match▲Expected goals9/80.75 xG/match
17.9 shots/match▲Shots9/89.75 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target9/83.13 shots/match
56.2%●Possession9/843.9%
7.56 corners/match●Corners9/82.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls9/814.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsInterLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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