PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Lecce

DDDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaLecce
Shots17 shots/match▲15 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.09 xG/match1.22 xG/match▲
Possession62%●38%
Corners5 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls10 fouls/match16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Sead Kolašinac · Atalanta · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Kaba · Lecce · 21′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHamza Rafia · Lecce · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonino Gallo · Lecce · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 58′ · 0.02 xG · goalYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBerat Djimsiti · Atalanta · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBerat Djimsiti · Atalanta · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMario Pašalić · Atalanta · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Strefezza · Lecce · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRémi Oudin · Lecce · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYlber Ramadani · Lecce · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcin Listkowski · Lecce · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Atalanta · 32′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 10′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 65′ · 0.11 xG · on targetRémi Oudin · Lecce · 89′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLuis Muriel · Atalanta · 78′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 69′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Piccoli · Lecce · 80′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 54′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 63′ · 0.33 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atalanta: 17 shots, 3 on target, 1.09 xG. Lecce: 15 shots, 2 on target, 1.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atalanta 1.09 xG · Lecce 1.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lecce's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lecce have a visible away split

moderate

Lecce's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match▲ShotsAtalanta · Lecce12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtalantaLecceBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11.1 shots/match13.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Atalanta
0Draws
2Lecce
Atalanta — Lecce · Serie A1–2
Lecce — Atalanta · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 2 too close

1.61 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.06 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.33 goals/match
1.32 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/180.99 xG/match
1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.6 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1812.9 shots/match
11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1813.9 shots/match
5.06 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/184 shots/match
3.33 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/184.89 shots/match
51.6%●Possessionseason · 18/1844.5%
5.83 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/183.72 corners/match
4.22 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/184.78 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1813.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1811%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta52.5
Lecce17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta84.2
Lecce50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta72.5
Lecce32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta62.5
Lecce77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta75
Lecce92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Lecce17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta84.4
Lecce55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atalanta18 matchesLecce18 matches
1.61 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.06 goals/match
1.11 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.33 goals/match
1.32 xG/match▲Expected goals18/180.99 xG/match
14.2 shots/match▲Shots18/1812.9 shots/match
5.06 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184 shots/match
51.6%●Possession18/1844.5%
5.83 corners/match●Corners18/183.72 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atalanta9 matchesLecce9 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.89 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.44 goals/match
1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.8 xG/match
15.8 shots/match▲Shots9/910.3 shots/match
6.11 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93 shots/match
51.2%●Possession9/943.2%
6.56 corners/match●Corners9/93 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls9/914.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.77 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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