PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

DWWDL
2–0Full-time recap

Napoli

LWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRomaNapoli
Shots17 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.9 xG/match▲0.7 xG/match
Possession41%59%●
Corners4 corners/match●0 corners/match
Fouls19 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Edoardo Bove · Roma · 26′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEdoardo Bove · Roma · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicola Zalewski · Roma · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGiovanni Di Lorenzo · Napoli · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicola Zalewski · Roma · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Napoli · 55′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEdoardo Bove · Roma · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPiotr Zieliński · Napoli · 48′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGianluca Mancini · Roma · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVictor Osimhen · Napoli · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 76′ · 0.06 xG · goalMatteo Politano · Napoli · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 51′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJens-Lys Cajuste · Napoli · 57′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSardar Azmoun · Roma · 76′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNicola Zalewski · Roma · 8′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 90′ · 0.26 xG · goalRomelu Lukaku · Roma · 84′ · 0.32 xG · on targetFrank Anguissa · Napoli · 40′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blockedEdoardo Bove · Roma · 21′ · 0.71 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.94 xG. Napoli: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.68 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Lorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 76′Romelu Lukaku · Roma · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 1.94 xG · Napoli 0.68 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Napoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Napoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.65 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.65 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Roma
2Draws
2Napoli
Napoli — Roma · Serie A2–1
Roma — Napoli · Serie A0–1
Napoli — Roma · Serie A1–1
Roma — Napoli · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Napoli in 3 · 2 too close

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 17/171.65 goals/match
1.12 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.24 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲1.76 xG/match
0.91 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/171.07 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲17 shots/match
9.65 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 17/1710.5 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲5.29 shots/match
2.94 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 17/173.41 shots/match
52.8%Possessionseason · 17/17●59.5%
5 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●6.12 corners/match
3.24 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/174 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/179.88 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1724%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1771%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma62.5
Napoli97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma64.2
Napoli91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma82.5
Napoli65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma27.5
Napoli77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma57.5
Napoli5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma60
Napoli97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma55.6
Napoli74.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma17 matchesNapoli17 matches
1.76 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.65 goals/match
1.12 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.24 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.76 xG/match
12.5 shots/matchShots17/17▲17 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲5.29 shots/match
52.8%Possession17/17●59.5%
5 corners/matchCorners17/17●6.12 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.6 fouls/matchFouls17/179.88 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma9 matchesNapoli9 matches
2.33 goals/match▲Goals scored9/91.78 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/90.89 goals/match
1.49 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.65 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots9/9▲14.7 shots/match
4.22 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲5.22 shots/match
50.8%Possession9/9●58.3%
5.11 corners/matchCorners9/95.11 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.7 fouls/matchFouls9/911.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRomaNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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