PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricHellas VeronaCagliari
Shots13 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals0.92 xG/match▲0.79 xG/match
Possession59%●41%
Corners11 corners/match●7 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nicolas Viola · Cagliari · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Viola · Cagliari · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPaweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGaetano Oristanio · Cagliari · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Hongla · Hellas Verona · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Pavoletti · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Cagliari · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 53′ · 0.04 xG · goalOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sulemana · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 8′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJordi Mboula · Hellas Verona · 88′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 15′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Hellas Verona · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Hellas Verona · 86′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 26′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMilan Đurić · Hellas Verona · 90′ · 0.25 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hellas Verona: 13 shots, 5 on target, 0.94 xG. Cagliari: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.79 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Cyril Ngonge · Hellas Verona · 53′Milan Đurić · Hellas Verona · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hellas Verona 0.94 xG · Cagliari 0.79 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.44 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.44 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Hellas Verona
1Draws
0Cagliari
Cagliari — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–2
Hellas Verona — Cagliari · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Hellas Verona favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 5 · 3 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲0.94 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 17/171.82 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲1.13 xG/match
1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 17/171.49 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲12.4 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲12.9 shots/match
3.82 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 17/173.29 shots/match
4.82 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲4.06 shots/match
45.6%●Possessionseason · 17/1742.6%
3.59 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●4.53 corners/match
5.29 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 17/176.35 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/1711.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
24%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/1712%
59%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/1759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hellas Verona32.5
Cagliari7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hellas Verona25.8
Cagliari30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hellas Verona35
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hellas Verona47.5
Cagliari82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona70
Cagliari42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona15
Cagliari40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hellas Verona36.2
Cagliari35.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Hellas Verona17 matchesCagliari17 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲0.94 goals/match
1.35 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.82 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲1.13 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots17/17▲12.4 shots/match
3.82 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.29 shots/match
45.6%●Possession17/1742.6%
3.59 corners/matchCorners17/17●4.53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Hellas Verona8 matchesCagliari9 matches
1.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/90.56 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.78 goals/match
0.95 xG/match▲Expected goals8/90.79 xG/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots8/99.44 shots/match
4.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/92.56 shots/match
42.6%●Possession8/941.1%
3.88 corners/matchCorners8/9●4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.9 fouls/matchFouls8/911.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.98 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 23 Dec 2023, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsHellas VeronaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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