Serie A · 2023Sun, 17 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Fiorentina

LWLWD

1–0Full-time recap

Hellas Verona

LLDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Fiorentina	Hellas Verona
Shots	5 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	7 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.49 xG/match	2.58 xG/match▲
Possession	66%●	34%
Corners	1 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Fiorentina: 5 shots, 3 on target, 0.47 xG. Hellas Verona: 19 shots, 7 on target, 3.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 0.47 xG · Hellas Verona 3.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.81 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.81 goals/match	1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.2%●PossessionFiorentina · Hellas Verona44.8%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Fiorentina	Hellas Verona	Baseline
Possession	58.2%	44.8%	51.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fiorentina

2Draws

0Hellas Verona

27 Feb 2023Hellas Verona — Fiorentina · Serie A0–3

18 Sept 2022Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A2–0

6 Mar 2022Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–1

22 Dec 2021Hellas Verona — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 0 · 3 too close

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/160.81 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.44 goals/match

1.2 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/160.88 xG/match

1.39 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 16/161.37 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1611.1 shots/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1613.8 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.75 shots/match

4.19 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.94 shots/match

58.2%●Possessionseason · 16/1644.8%

4.94 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/163.13 corners/match

3.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/165.19 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1613 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

25%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1619%

69%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina92.5

Hellas Verona22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina70.8

Hellas Verona25.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina60

Hellas Verona29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina32.5

Hellas Verona52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina62.5

Hellas Verona77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina60

Hellas Verona7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina65.6

Hellas Verona37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina16 matchesHellas Verona16 matches

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored16/160.81 goals/match

1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.44 goals/match

1.2 xG/match▲Expected goals16/160.88 xG/match

13.6 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.1 shots/match

4.75 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.75 shots/match

58.2%●Possession16/1644.8%

4.94 corners/match●Corners16/163.13 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls16/1613 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina8 matchesHellas Verona9 matches

1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/90.67 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.33 goals/match

1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals8/90.82 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots8/910.9 shots/match

5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.11 shots/match

60.1%●Possession8/948.3%

4.5 corners/match●Corners8/93.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls8/912.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4