Serie A · 2023Mon, 4 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Inter

WWWWW

2–1Full-time recap

Genoa

WDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Inter	Genoa
Shots	15 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.87 xG/match▲	0.83 xG/match
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	4 corners/match	5 corners/match●
Fouls	5 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Inter: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.89 xG. Genoa: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Inter 1.89 xG · Genoa 0.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.56 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.6 goals/match	2.56 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Genoa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Genoa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsInter · Genoa10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Inter	Genoa	Baseline
Shots	15.7 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	9.78 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Inter have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.3%●PossessionInter · Genoa43.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Inter	Genoa	Baseline
Possession	56.3%	43.7%	50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Inter

2Draws

0Genoa

29 Dec 2023Genoa — Inter · Serie A1–1

25 Feb 2022Genoa — Inter · Serie A0–0

21 Aug 2021Inter — Genoa · Serie A4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Inter favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Genoa in 0 · 2 too close

2.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/271.07 goals/match

0.48 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.22 goals/match

2.18 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/270.86 xG/match

0.79 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/271.06 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2710.7 shots/match

9.78 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2712.4 shots/match

5.56 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/273.33 shots/match

2.56 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/273.81 shots/match

56.3%●Possessionseason · 27/2743.7%

6.3 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/274 corners/match

3.56 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/274.89 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2711.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

63%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2722%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2774%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Inter82.5

Genoa12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Inter95.8

Genoa20.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Inter97.5

Genoa59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Inter72.5

Genoa42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Inter17.5

Genoa27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Inter97.5

Genoa12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Inter76.2

Genoa15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Inter27 matchesGenoa27 matches

2.56 goals/match▲Goals scored27/271.07 goals/match

0.48 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.22 goals/match

2.18 xG/match▲Expected goals27/270.86 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots27/2710.7 shots/match

5.56 shots/match▲Shots on target27/273.33 shots/match

56.3%●Possession27/2743.7%

6.3 corners/match●Corners27/274 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls27/2711.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Inter14 matchesGenoa14 matches

2.57 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.86 goals/match

0.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.21 goals/match

2.44 xG/match▲Expected goals14/140.81 xG/match

17.6 shots/match▲Shots14/149.14 shots/match

6.07 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.79 shots/match

58.3%●Possession14/1442%

7.64 corners/match●Corners14/142.86 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1412 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 4 Mar 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4