Serie A · 2023Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Genoa

DLDWL

2–3Full-time recap

Monza

DDWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Genoa	Monza
Shots	22 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.11 xG/match▲	1.71 xG/match
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	10 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	11 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Genoa: 22 shots, 6 on target, 2.86 xG. Monza: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Genoa 2.86 xG · Monza 1.75 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Genoa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.11 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Genoa have a visible home split

moderate

Genoa's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monza have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.3%PossessionGenoa · Monza●53.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Genoa	Monza	Baseline
Possession	44.3%	53.9%	50.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa

0Draws

1Monza

10 Dec 2023Monza — Genoa · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Monza in 4 · 5 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/281.11 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/281.29 goals/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 28/28▲1.12 xG/match

1.08 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/281.47 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲12.4 shots/match

12.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2814.9 shots/match

3.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲3.75 shots/match

3.86 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/285 shots/match

44.3%Possessionseason · 28/28●53.9%

4.21 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/28●5.14 corners/match

4.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/284.89 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2811.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲36%

75%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2864%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa17.5

Monza72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa23.3

Monza40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa58.3

Monza25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa47.5

Monza27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa27.5

Monza37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa17.5

Monza72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa18.8

Monza47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Genoa28 matchesMonza28 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored28/281.11 goals/match

1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.29 goals/match

0.91 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲1.12 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShots28/28▲12.4 shots/match

3.43 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲3.75 shots/match

44.3%Possession28/28●53.9%

4.21 corners/matchCorners28/28●5.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Genoa14 matchesMonza14 matches

1.36 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141 goals/match

1.36 goals/matchGoals allowed14/141.36 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲1.09 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.7 shots/match

4.07 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.86 shots/match

46.6%Possession14/14●53%

5.57 corners/match●Corners14/144.64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1412 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.11 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Monza's recent record differs from the season

Genoa have a visible home split

The teams have contrasting possession records

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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