PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCagliariSalernitana
Shots12 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals3.25 xG/match▲0.92 xG/match
Possession29%71%●
Corners5 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Antonio Candreva · Salernitana · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYerry Mina · Cagliari · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLoum Tchaouna · Salernitana · 31′ · 0.02 xG · on targetShon Weissman · Salernitana · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDomagoj Bradarić · Salernitana · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFederico Fazio · Salernitana · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGrigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Candreva · Salernitana · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGiulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 83′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNicolas Viola · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPaulo Azzi · Cagliari · 82′ · 0.09 xG · on targetGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 40′ · 0.10 xG · goalEldor Shomurodov · Cagliari · 51′ · 0.12 xG · on targetGiulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 58′ · 0.13 xG · goalEldor Shomurodov · Cagliari · 82′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedGiulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 54′ · 0.24 xG · on targetGrigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 56′ · 0.25 xG · goalEldor Shomurodov · Cagliari · 76′ · 0.41 xG · goalEldor Shomurodov · Cagliari · 76′ · 0.53 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.62 xG. Salernitana: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.89 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Gianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 40′Eldor Shomurodov · Cagliari · 76′Grigoris Kastanos · Salernitana · 56′Giulio Maggiore · Salernitana · 58′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 1.62 xG · Salernitana 0.89 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible home split

moderate

Cagliari's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match12 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Cagliari
3Draws
0Salernitana
Salernitana — Cagliari · Serie A2–2
Salernitana — Cagliari · Serie A1–1
Cagliari — Salernitana · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Cagliari favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Salernitana in 0 · 2 too close

1.04 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/280.82 goals/match
1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/282.07 goals/match
1.13 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/280.78 xG/match
1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/281.97 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2810.6 shots/match
13.2 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2815.4 shots/match
3.64 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.18 shots/match
4.11 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/285.46 shots/match
42.9%Possessionseason · 28/28●44.9%
4.75 corners/match●Cornersseason · 28/284.18 corners/match
6.07 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/286.96 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2812.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/287%
68%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cagliari7.5
Salernitana32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cagliari32.5
Salernitana4.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cagliari34.2
Salernitana2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cagliari72.5
Salernitana37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cagliari62.5
Salernitana42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cagliari47.5
Salernitana17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cagliari43.8
Salernitana16.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Cagliari28 matchesSalernitana28 matches
1.04 goals/match▲Goals scored28/280.82 goals/match
1.75 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/282.07 goals/match
1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals28/280.78 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shots28/2810.6 shots/match
3.64 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.18 shots/match
42.9%Possession28/28●44.9%
4.75 corners/match●Corners28/284.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Cagliari14 matchesSalernitana14 matches
1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.71 goals/match
1.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.07 goals/match
1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals14/140.63 xG/match
14.4 shots/match▲Shots14/148.64 shots/match
4.57 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.36 shots/match
42.4%Possession14/14●45.4%
5.43 corners/match●Corners14/143.14 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCagliariSalernitana
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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