PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 16 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Monza

DWWLW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonzaCagliari
Shots15 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals1.03 xG/match▲0.42 xG/match
Possession62%●38%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls11 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jakub Jankto · Cagliari · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlessio Zerbin · Monza · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Carboni · Monza · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Maldini · Monza · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDany Mota · Monza · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Birindelli · Monza · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWarren Bondo · Monza · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Prati · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Colombo · Monza · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 35′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Maldini · Monza · 42′ · 0.04 xG · goalDany Mota · Monza · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Monza · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMateusz Wieteska · Cagliari · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMatteo Pessina · Monza · 67′ · 0.06 xG · on targetGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNahitan Nández · Cagliari · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Lapadula · Cagliari · 31′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Monza · 71′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRoberto Gagliardini · Monza · 86′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDany Mota · Monza · 50′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Colombo · Monza · 83′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monza: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.06 xG. Cagliari: 10 shots, 0 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Daniel Maldini · Monza · 42′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 1.06 xG · Cagliari 0.43 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cagliari have a visible away split

moderate

Cagliari's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.53 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.53 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Monza have recorded the higher season possession share.

54.2%●PossessionMonza · Cagliari42.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMonzaCagliariBaseline
Possession54.2%42.8%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monza
1Draws
0Cagliari
Cagliari — Monza · Serie A1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Monza favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 2 · 6 too close

1.1 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 29/291 goals/match
1.24 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 29/291.72 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/291.1 xG/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/291.45 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/2911.9 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲13.3 shots/match
3.72 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 29/293.52 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲4.07 shots/match
54.2%●Possessionseason · 29/2942.8%
5.07 corners/match●Cornersseason · 29/294.83 corners/match
4.97 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 29/295.97 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2912.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/2914%
66%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/2966%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monza72.5
Cagliari7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monza39.2
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monza34.2
Cagliari34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monza27.5
Cagliari77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monza37.5
Cagliari57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monza62.5
Cagliari47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monza45
Cagliari42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Monza29 matchesCagliari29 matches
1.1 goals/match▲Goals scored29/291 goals/match
1.24 goals/match▲Goals allowed29/291.72 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals29/291.1 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots29/2911.9 shots/match
3.72 shots/match▲Shots on target29/293.52 shots/match
54.2%●Possession29/2942.8%
5.07 corners/match●Corners29/294.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls29/2912.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Monza15 matchesCagliari15 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.6 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.73 goals/match
1.14 xG/match▲Expected goals15/150.7 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots15/159.53 shots/match
3.6 shots/match▲Shots on target15/152.53 shots/match
55.3%●Possession15/1543.1%
5.47 corners/match●Corners15/154.27 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1512.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonzaCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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