Serie A · 2023Sat, 16 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Salernitana

LLLDL

0–1Full-time recap

Lecce

LLLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Salernitana	Lecce
Shots	15 shots/match	17 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.19 xG/match	1.24 xG/match▲
Possession	71%●	29%
Corners	7 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	18 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Salernitana's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.9 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.9 goals/match	1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Salernitana have a visible home split

moderate

Salernitana's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.7 shots/match	10.8 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsSalernitana · Lecce13.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Salernitana	Lecce	Baseline
Shots	10.8 shots/match	13.2 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	15.4 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Salernitana

0Draws

2Lecce

3 Sept 2023Lecce — Salernitana · Serie A2–0

27 Jan 2023Lecce — Salernitana · Serie A1–2

16 Sept 2022Salernitana — Lecce · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Salernitana favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Lecce in 11 · 2 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 29/29▲0.9 goals/match

2.03 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.55 goals/match

0.8 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 29/29▲1.09 xG/match

1.95 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 29/29▲1.54 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 29/29▲13.2 shots/match

15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 29/29▲13.8 shots/match

3.28 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 29/29▲3.9 shots/match

5.41 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 29/29▲4.97 shots/match

45.8%●Possessionseason · 29/2943.8%

4.28 corners/matchCornersseason · 29/29●4.41 corners/match

6.76 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 29/29▲5.14 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 29/2913.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 29/29▲10%

59%Scoring frequencyseason · 29/29▲62%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Salernitana37.5

Lecce12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Salernitana4.2

Lecce42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Salernitana4.2

Lecce22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Salernitana32.5

Lecce92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Salernitana42.5

Lecce92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Salernitana22.5

Lecce30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Salernitana17.5

Lecce58.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Salernitana29 matchesLecce29 matches

0.79 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲0.9 goals/match

2.03 goals/matchGoals allowed29/29▲1.55 goals/match

0.8 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲1.09 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots29/29▲13.2 shots/match

3.28 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲3.9 shots/match

45.8%●Possession29/2943.8%

4.28 corners/matchCorners29/29●4.41 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12 fouls/matchFouls29/2913.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Salernitana15 matchesLecce15 matches

0.87 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.73 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.53 goals/match

0.95 xG/matchExpected goals15/150.95 xG/match

12.7 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.5 shots/match

4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.33 shots/match

46.3%●Possession15/1541.7%

5.33 corners/match●Corners15/153.8 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1514.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.23 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples29 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Mar 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4