PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lecce

WLLLD
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLecceHellas Verona
Shots15 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.98 xG/match▲0.63 xG/match
Possession56%●44%
Corners11 corners/match●6 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nikola Krstović · Lecce · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Baschirotto · Lecce · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDarko Lazović · Hellas Verona · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 44′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNikola Krstović · Lecce · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDarko Lazović · Hellas Verona · 11′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLameck Banda · Lecce · 15′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMichael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPontus Almqvist · Lecce · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Suslov · Hellas Verona · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexis Blin · Lecce · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLameck Banda · Lecce · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 17′ · 0.04 xG · goalLameck Banda · Lecce · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOndrej Duda · Hellas Verona · 59′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThomas Henry · Hellas Verona · 87′ · 0.05 xG · on targetTijjani Noslin · Hellas Verona · 2′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 26′ · 0.17 xG · on targetDiego Coppola · Hellas Verona · 59′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLameck Banda · Lecce · 14′ · 0.36 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lecce: 15 shots, 3 on target, 0.99 xG. Hellas Verona: 13 shots, 4 on target, 0.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Michael Folorunsho · Hellas Verona · 17′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 0.99 xG · Hellas Verona 0.62 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce
1Draws
2Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona — Lecce · Serie A2–2
Lecce — Hellas Verona · Serie A0–1
Hellas Verona — Lecce · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Hellas Verona in 5 · 5 too close

0.89 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/280.89 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.29 goals/match
1.09 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/280.9 xG/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 28/28▲1.25 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.2 shots/match
13.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/2813.5 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/283.82 shots/match
4.93 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲4.29 shots/match
44.3%Possessionseason · 28/28●44.4%
4.54 corners/match●Cornersseason · 28/283.36 corners/match
5.07 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/286.14 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2813.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/28▲25%
61%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/28▲64%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce15
Hellas Verona25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce41.7
Hellas Verona23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce25
Hellas Verona35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce92.5
Hellas Verona52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce92.5
Hellas Verona97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce32.5
Hellas Verona2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce58.8
Hellas Verona38.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lecce28 matchesHellas Verona28 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored28/280.89 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲1.29 goals/match
1.09 xG/match▲Expected goals28/280.9 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.2 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target28/283.82 shots/match
44.3%Possession28/28●44.4%
4.54 corners/match●Corners28/283.36 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.4 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lecce14 matchesHellas Verona15 matches
1.07 goals/match▲Goals scored14/150.67 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed14/15▲1.33 goals/match
1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals14/150.85 xG/match
15.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1510.7 shots/match
4.5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/152.93 shots/match
46%●Possession14/1544.9%
5.07 corners/match●Corners14/152.87 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1513.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLecceHellas Verona
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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