Serie A · 2023Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

WWLDW

1–0Full-time recap

Empoli

DWDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Milan	Empoli
Shots	15 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	0.84 xG/match▲	0.19 xG/match
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	11 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	18 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Milan: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.87 xG. Empoli: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 0.87 xG · Empoli 0.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Empoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Empoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Empoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	0.79 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match▲ShotsMilan · Empoli11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Empoli	Baseline
Shots	13.8 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	13.3 shots/match	14.8 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.2%●PossessionMilan · Empoli45.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Milan	Empoli	Baseline
Possession	56.2%	45.3%	50.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Milan

1Draws

0Empoli

7 Jan 2024Empoli — Milan · Serie A0–3

7 Apr 2023Milan — Empoli · Serie A0–0

1 Oct 2022Empoli — Milan · Serie A1–3

12 Mar 2022Milan — Empoli · Serie A1–0

22 Dec 2021Empoli — Milan · Serie A2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Empoli in 0 · 2 too close

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/280.79 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 28/281.5 goals/match

1.55 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/281.01 xG/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 28/281.3 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 28/2811.6 shots/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 28/2814.8 shots/match

5.18 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/283.43 shots/match

3.96 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 28/284.96 shots/match

56.2%●Possessionseason · 28/2845.3%

4.57 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/28●4.89 corners/match

4.14 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 28/285.79 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2813.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2825%

93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 28/2846%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan82.5

Empoli37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan82.5

Empoli18.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan54.2

Empoli24.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan42.5

Empoli57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan27.5

Empoli87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan40

Empoli52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan56.9

Empoli48.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan28 matchesEmpoli28 matches

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored28/280.79 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed28/281.5 goals/match

1.55 xG/match▲Expected goals28/281.01 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots28/2811.6 shots/match

5.18 shots/match▲Shots on target28/283.43 shots/match

56.2%●Possession28/2845.3%

4.57 corners/matchCorners28/28●4.89 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan14 matchesEmpoli14 matches

1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.93 goals/match

0.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.64 goals/match

1.56 xG/match▲Expected goals14/140.94 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.6 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/142.93 shots/match

53.4%●Possession14/1444.6%

5 corners/match●Corners14/144.79 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4