PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Milan 1–0 Empoli · Serie A

Milan

WWLDW
1–0Historical match

Empoli

DWDWL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Milan won 1–0.

Shots
155
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
0.840.19
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat Empoli 1–0. Recorded in this match (Milan – Empoli): shots 15–5, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 0.84–0.19, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Empoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Empoli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Empoli11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanEmpoliBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against13.3 shots/match14.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

56.2% ●PossessionMilan · Empoli45.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanEmpoliBaseline
Possession56.2%45.3%50.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots5 shotsMilan 15 shots, Empoli 5 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsMilan 5 shots, Empoli 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.84 xG0.19 xGMilan 0.84 xG, Empoli 0.19 xG
  • Possession62%38%Milan 62%, Empoli 38%
  • Corners11 corners4 cornersMilan 11 corners, Empoli 4 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls13 foulsMilan 18 fouls, Empoli 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luka Jović · Milan · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNoah Okafor · Milan · 32′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRuben Loftus-Cheek · Milan · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · Milan · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFikayo Tomori · Milan · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedM'Baye Niang · Empoli · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSzymon Żurkowski · Empoli · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLuka Jović · Milan · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Cambiaghi · Empoli · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDavide Calabria · Milan · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRuben Loftus-Cheek · Milan · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · Milan · 5′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMattia Destro · Empoli · 87′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEmmanuel Gyasi · Empoli · 15′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYunus Musah · Milan · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 38′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 40′ · 0.12 xG · goalDavide Calabria · Milan · 77′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Milan: 15 shots, 5 on target, 0.87 xG. Empoli: 5 shots, 2 on target, 0.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Christian Pulišić · Milan · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 0.87 xG · Empoli 0.19 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Milan
1Draws
0Empoli
Empoli — Milan · Serie A0–3
Milan — Empoli · Serie A0–0
Empoli — Milan · Serie A1–3
Milan — Empoli · Serie A1–0
Empoli — Milan · Serie A2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Empoli in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan28 matchesEmpoli28 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/280.79 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.5 goals/match
1.55 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/281.01 xG/match
13.8 shots/match ▲Shots28/2811.6 shots/match
5.18 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.43 shots/match
56.2% ●Possession28/2845.3%
4.57 corners/matchCorners28/28● 4.89 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanEmpoli
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headMilan — Empoli
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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