Serie A · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 11:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Napoli

DWWDD

0–3Full-time recap

Atalanta

WDLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Napoli	Atalanta
Shots	20 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.67 xG/match▲	0.87 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	7 corners/match●	5 corners/match
Fouls	6 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Napoli: 20 shots, 5 on target, 1.63 xG. Atalanta: 12 shots, 6 on target, 0.87 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Napoli 1.63 xG · Atalanta 0.87 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atalanta's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Atalanta's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atalanta's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.8 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Napoli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Napoli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.9 shots/match▲ShotsNapoli · Atalanta13.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Napoli	Atalanta	Baseline
Shots	16.9 shots/match	13.9 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	10.5 shots/match	12.2 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Napoli

0Draws

1Atalanta

25 Nov 2023Atalanta — Napoli · Serie A1–2

11 Mar 2023Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A2–0

5 Nov 2022Atalanta — Napoli · Serie A1–2

3 Apr 2022Atalanta — Napoli · Serie A1–3

4 Dec 2021Napoli — Atalanta · Serie A2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Napoli favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Atalanta in 4 · 3 too close

1.47 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/29▲1.86 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/29▲1.1 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/291.47 xG/match

1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/291.13 xG/match

16.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/2913.9 shots/match

10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/2912.2 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/295.34 shots/match

3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/294.07 shots/match

61.4%●Possessionseason · 30/2950%

6.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/295.55 corners/match

3.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/294.24 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.67 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/2912.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/29▲41%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/29▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Napoli97.5

Atalanta47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Napoli87.5

Atalanta82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Napoli75.8

Atalanta61.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Napoli62.5

Atalanta67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Napoli2.5

Atalanta67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Napoli97.5

Atalanta87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Napoli72.5

Atalanta80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Napoli30 matchesAtalanta29 matches

1.47 goals/matchGoals scored30/29▲1.86 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed30/29▲1.1 goals/match

1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals30/291.47 xG/match

16.9 shots/match▲Shots30/2913.9 shots/match

5.4 shots/matchShots on target30/295.34 shots/match

61.4%●Possession30/2950%

6.33 corners/match●Corners30/295.55 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.67 fouls/matchFouls30/2912.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Napoli15 matchesAtalanta15 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.53 goals/match

1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed15/151.47 goals/match

1.82 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.04 xG/match

20.1 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.2 shots/match

6.27 shots/match▲Shots on target15/154 shots/match

63.5%●Possession15/1547.9%

7.6 corners/match●Corners15/154.47 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.93 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/119.8 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples30 / 29home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4