PitchMath
Serie A · 2023

Cagliari 2–1 Atalanta · Serie A

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Cagliari won 2–1.

Shots
117
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.670.5
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cagliari beat Atalanta 2–1. Recorded in this match (Cagliari – Atalanta): shots 11–7, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.67–0.5, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible away split

moderate

Atalanta's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match13.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots7 shotsCagliari 11 shots, Atalanta 7 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsCagliari 3 shots, Atalanta 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.67 xG0.5 xGCagliari 0.67 xG, Atalanta 0.5 xG
  • Possession38%62%Cagliari 38%, Atalanta 62%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersCagliari 4 corners, Atalanta 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls19 foulsCagliari 16 fouls, Atalanta 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari · 59′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedZito Luvumbo · Cagliari · 85′ · 0.01 xG · on targetRafael Tolói · Atalanta · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEldor Shomurodov · Cagliari · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Gaetano · Cagliari · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Viola · Cagliari · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Makoumbou · Cagliari · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEl Bilal Touré · Atalanta · 68′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Atalanta · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedÉderson · Atalanta · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIbrahim Sulemana · Cagliari · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEl Bilal Touré · Atalanta · 61′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 26′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Viola · Cagliari · 88′ · 0.09 xG · goalAlberto Dossena · Cagliari · 61′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 13′ · 0.16 xG · goalTommaso Augello · Cagliari · 42′ · 0.24 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Cagliari: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.65 xG. Atalanta: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Tommaso Augello · Cagliari · 42′Nicolas Viola · Cagliari · 88′Gianluca Scamacca · Atalanta · 13′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Cagliari 0.65 xG · Atalanta 0.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cagliari
0Draws
2Atalanta
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A2–0
Atalanta — Cagliari · Serie A1–2
Cagliari — Atalanta · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cagliari favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Atalanta in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cagliari31 matchesAtalanta30 matches
1.03 goals/matchGoals scored31/30▲ 1.83 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed31/30▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals31/30▲ 1.44 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots31/30▲ 13.6 shots/match
3.45 shots/matchShots on target31/30▲ 5.23 shots/match
42.9%Possession31/30● 50.4%
4.87 corners/matchCorners31/30● 5.5 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls31/3012.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 7 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCagliariAtalanta
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2023/24
Head-to-headCagliari — Atalanta
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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