PitchMath
Serie A · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Torino

LLDDW
1–0Full-time recap

Monza

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricTorinoMonza
Shots15 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.57 xG/match▲0.77 xG/match
Possession62%●38%
Corners7 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nikola Vlašić · Torino · 21′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaoul Bellanova · Torino · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Ricci · Torino · 75′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAndrea Carboni · Monza · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlessandro Buongiorno · Torino · 52′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDavid Okereke · Torino · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAndrea Colpani · Monza · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDaniel Maldini · Monza · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Monza · 35′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 85′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNikola Vlašić · Torino · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Colpani · Monza · 23′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Ricci · Torino · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Monza · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNikola Vlašić · Torino · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDuván Zapata · Torino · 18′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Monza · 71′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sanabria · Torino · 90′ · 0.12 xG · on targetValentino Lazaro · Torino · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDany Mota · Monza · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAdrien Tameze · Torino · 80′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMilan Đurić · Monza · 58′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sanabria · Torino · 69′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Torino: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.62 xG. Monza: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Antonio Sanabria · Torino · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Torino 1.62 xG · Monza 0.78 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monza's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.07 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.07 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Torino
2Draws
0Monza
Monza — Torino · Serie A1–1
Torino — Monza · Serie A1–1
Monza — Torino · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Torino favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Monza in 5 · 2 too close

0.97 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.07 goals/match
0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 30/301.23 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 30/30▲1.1 xG/match
0.93 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/301.44 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 30/30▲12.3 shots/match
10.9 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3014.7 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 30/30▲3.67 shots/match
3.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.87 shots/match
51.9%Possessionseason · 30/30●53.6%
4.63 corners/matchCornersseason · 30/30●4.97 corners/match
3.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/305.03 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3011.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3037%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲63%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Torino57.5
Monza67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Torino20.8
Monza40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Torino75.8
Monza31.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Torino17.5
Monza27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Torino57.5
Monza32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Torino42.5
Monza57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Torino33.8
Monza42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Torino30 matchesMonza30 matches
0.97 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.07 goals/match
0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowed30/301.23 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲1.1 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots30/30▲12.3 shots/match
3.4 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲3.67 shots/match
51.9%Possession30/30●53.6%
4.63 corners/matchCorners30/30●4.97 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.3 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Torino15 matchesMonza15 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored15/150.93 goals/match
0.53 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/151.33 goals/match
1.24 xG/match▲Expected goals15/151.07 xG/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots15/1511.5 shots/match
3.87 shots/matchShots on target15/153.73 shots/match
54.3%●Possession15/1552%
6.2 corners/match●Corners15/154.47 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsTorinoMonza
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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