Serie A · 2024Sat, 31 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lecce

1–0Full-time recap

Cagliari

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lecce	Cagliari
Shots	17 shots/match	21 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.7 xG/match	1.88 xG/match▲
Possession	35%	65%●
Corners	7 corners/match	10 corners/match●
Fouls	10 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lecce: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.71 xG. Cagliari: 21 shots, 2 on target, 1.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lecce 1.71 xG · Cagliari 1.86 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Cagliari have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16 shots/match▲ShotsLecce · Cagliari15 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Lecce	Cagliari	Baseline
Shots	16 shots/match	15 shots/match	14.2 shots/match
Shots against	14.3 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Cagliari have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.3%PossessionLecce · Cagliari●51.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Lecce	Cagliari	Baseline
Possession	40.3%	51.7%	51.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lecce

2Draws

0Cagliari

5 May 2024Cagliari — Lecce · Serie A1–1

6 Jan 2024Lecce — Cagliari · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lecce favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0 · 13 too close

0.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/30.33 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/30.67 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/31.22 xG/match

2.01 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/31.39 xG/match

16 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/315 shots/match

14.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/315.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/33 shots/match

3.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/33.67 shots/match

40.3%Possessionseason · 3/3●51.7%

6 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/3●6.67 corners/match

7.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/35.33 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/313.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/333%

33%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce20.8

Cagliari45.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce41.7

Cagliari29.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce40.3

Cagliari62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce95.8

Cagliari54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce25

Cagliari70.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce58.3

Cagliari75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce49

Cagliari55.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lecce3 matchesCagliari3 matches

0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/30.33 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.67 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals3/31.22 xG/match

16 shots/match▲Shots3/315 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target3/33 shots/match

40.3%Possession3/3●51.7%

6 corners/matchCorners3/3●6.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls3/313.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lecce2 matchesCagliari1 matches

—Goals scored2/1—

—Goals allowed2/1—

—Expected goals2/1—

—Shots2/1—

—Shots on target2/1—

—Possession2/1—

—Corners2/1—

—Cards0/0—

—Fouls2/1—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples3 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Aug 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4