PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Juventus 1–0 Inter · Serie A

1–0Historical match

Inter

WWDLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Juventus won 1–0.

Shots
1617
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
1.161.94
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Juventus beat Inter 1–0. Recorded in this match (Juventus – Inter): shots 16–17, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 1.16–1.94, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Inter's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Inter's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.32 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.32 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots17 shotsJuventus 16 shots, Inter 17 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsJuventus 8 shots, Inter 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.16 xG1.94 xGJuventus 1.16 xG, Inter 1.94 xG
  • Possession42%58%Juventus 42%, Inter 58%
  • Corners7 corners5 cornersJuventus 7 corners, Inter 5 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls10 foulsJuventus 17 fouls, Inter 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Timothy Weah · Juventus · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRenato Veiga · Juventus · 48′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Juventus · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRandal Kolo Muani · Juventus · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Martínez · Inter · 41′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 49′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPiotr Zieliński · Inter · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTeun Koopmeiners · Juventus · 76′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTeun Koopmeiners · Juventus · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFederico Dimarco · Inter · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFrancesco Acerbi · Inter · 8′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Barella · Inter · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFederico Gatti · Juventus · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Juventus · 72′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Martínez · Inter · 8′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRandal Kolo Muani · Juventus · 23′ · 0.08 xG · on targetHenrikh Mkhitaryan · Inter · 42′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDenzel Dumfries · Inter · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Juventus · 3′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDenzel Dumfries · Inter · 43′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLautaro Martínez · Inter · 30′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedWeston McKennie · Juventus · 36′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKenan Yıldız · Juventus · 88′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Thuram · Inter · 85′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 74′ · 0.16 xG · goalMehdi Taremi · Inter · 19′ · 0.20 xG · on targetLautaro Martínez · Inter · 35′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedRandal Kolo Muani · Juventus · 90′ · 0.30 xG · on targetDenzel Dumfries · Inter · 19′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Juventus: 16 shots, 8 on target, 1.27 xG. Inter: 17 shots, 2 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Francisco Conceição · Juventus · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Juventus 1.27 xG · Inter 1.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Juventus
2Draws
1Inter
Inter — Juventus · Serie A4–4
Inter — Juventus · Serie A1–0
Juventus — Inter · Serie A1–1
Inter — Juventus · Serie A0–1
Juventus — Inter · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Juventus favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Inter in 8

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Juventus25 matchesInter25 matches
1.68 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2.32 goals/match
0.84 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/250.96 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.9 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 15.7 shots/match
4.92 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.56 shots/match
58%Possession25/25● 60%
4.88 corners/matchCorners25/25● 6.24 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsJuventusInter
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headJuventus — Inter
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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