Serie A · 2024Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Hellas Verona

LDWLL

1–0Full-time recap

Fiorentina

WWWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Hellas Verona	Fiorentina
Shots	7 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.06 xG/match	1.22 xG/match▲
Possession	43%	57%●
Corners	4 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	19 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Hellas Verona: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.17 xG. Fiorentina: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hellas Verona 1.17 xG · Fiorentina 1.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.04 goals/match	1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.4%PossessionHellas Verona · Fiorentina●50%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Hellas Verona	Fiorentina	Baseline
Possession	38.4%	50%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Hellas Verona

0Draws

4Fiorentina

10 Nov 2024Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–1

5 May 2024Hellas Verona — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1

17 Dec 2023Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0

27 Feb 2023Hellas Verona — Fiorentina · Serie A0–3

18 Sept 2022Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Hellas Verona favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 11 · 2 too close

1.04 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲1.58 goals/match

2.08 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.08 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 26/26▲1.29 xG/match

1.58 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.03 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲12 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲11.8 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲4.58 shots/match

5.04 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.92 shots/match

38.4%Possessionseason · 26/26●50%

4.38 corners/match●Cornersseason · 26/264.08 corners/match

5.65 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲4.15 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲31%

58%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Hellas Verona2.5

Fiorentina52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Hellas Verona20

Fiorentina59.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Hellas Verona12.5

Fiorentina62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Hellas Verona92.5

Fiorentina37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona97.5

Fiorentina37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Hellas Verona37.5

Fiorentina17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Hellas Verona41.9

Fiorentina40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Hellas Verona26 matchesFiorentina26 matches

1.04 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲1.58 goals/match

2.08 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲1.08 goals/match

1.01 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲1.29 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots26/26▲12 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲4.58 shots/match

38.4%Possession26/26●50%

4.38 corners/match●Corners26/264.08 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Hellas Verona13 matchesFiorentina13 matches

0.92 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.46 goals/match

2.31 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1 goals/match

1.11 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.06 xG/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots13/1310.9 shots/match

3.08 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲4 shots/match

39.7%Possession13/13●51.5%

5.31 corners/match●Corners13/133.23 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.76 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4