PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Hellas Verona 1–0 Fiorentina · Serie A

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Hellas Verona won 1–0.

Shots
78
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.061.22
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hellas Verona beat Fiorentina 1–0. Recorded in this match (Hellas Verona – Fiorentina): shots 7–8, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.06–1.22, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Hellas Verona's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Hellas Verona's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Fiorentina have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.4%PossessionHellas Verona · Fiorentina● 50%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricHellas VeronaFiorentinaBaseline
Possession38.4%50%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots8 shotsHellas Verona 7 shots, Fiorentina 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsHellas Verona 3 shots, Fiorentina 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.06 xG1.22 xGHellas Verona 1.06 xG, Fiorentina 1.22 xG
  • Possession43%57%Hellas Verona 43%, Fiorentina 57%
  • Corners4 corners1 cornerHellas Verona 4 corners, Fiorentina 1 corner
  • Fouls19 fouls8 foulsHellas Verona 19 fouls, Fiorentina 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Amin Sarr · Hellas Verona · 22′ · 0.01 xG · on targetPietro Comuzzo · Fiorentina · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCheikh Niasse · Hellas Verona · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDailon Rocha Livramento · Hellas Verona · 56′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Oyegoke · Hellas Verona · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 60′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPaweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 41′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDanilo Cataldi · Fiorentina · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 4′ · 0.21 xG · on targetAmin Sarr · Hellas Verona · 64′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 20′ · 0.35 xG · on targetMichael Folorunsho · Fiorentina · 43′ · 0.52 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Bernede · Hellas Verona · 90′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Hellas Verona: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.17 xG. Fiorentina: 8 shots, 3 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Antoine Bernede · Hellas Verona · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Hellas Verona 1.17 xG · Fiorentina 1.40 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Hellas Verona
0Draws
4Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A3–1
Hellas Verona — Fiorentina · Serie A2–1
Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A1–0
Hellas Verona — Fiorentina · Serie A0–3
Fiorentina — Hellas Verona · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Hellas Verona favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Hellas Verona26 matchesFiorentina26 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.58 goals/match
2.08 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.08 goals/match
1.01 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.29 xG/match
10.6 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 12 shots/match
2.96 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 4.58 shots/match
38.4%Possession26/26● 50%
4.38 corners/match ●Corners26/264.08 corners/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHellas VeronaFiorentina
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headHellas Verona — Fiorentina
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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