Serie A · 2024Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Empoli

LDLLL

0–5Full-time recap

Atalanta

LWDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Empoli	Atalanta
Shots	10 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	1 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.05 xG/match	2.19 xG/match▲
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	4 fouls/match	17 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Empoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Empoli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Empoli's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.85 goals/match	1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.46 shots/match▲ShotsEmpoli · Atalanta14.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Empoli	Atalanta	Baseline
Shots	9.46 shots/match	14.7 shots/match	12.2 shots/match
Shots against	15.2 shots/match	10.2 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Atalanta have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.7%PossessionEmpoli · Atalanta●56.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Empoli	Atalanta	Baseline
Possession	40.7%	56.7%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Empoli

0Draws

5Atalanta

22 Dec 2024Atalanta — Empoli · Serie A3–2

28 Apr 2024Atalanta — Empoli · Serie A2–0

30 Oct 2023Empoli — Atalanta · Serie A0–3

17 Mar 2023Atalanta — Empoli · Serie A2–1

30 Oct 2022Empoli — Atalanta · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Empoli favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atalanta in 11 · 2 too close

0.85 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲2.27 goals/match

1.65 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲1 goals/match

0.87 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 26/26▲1.75 xG/match

1.39 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 26/26▲0.98 xG/match

9.46 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲14.7 shots/match

15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲10.2 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲5.69 shots/match

4.58 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.88 shots/match

40.7%Possessionseason · 26/26●56.7%

4.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/26●4.92 corners/match

5.73 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲2.69 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

14.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲38%

62%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Empoli7.5

Atalanta82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Empoli10.8

Atalanta93.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Empoli14.2

Atalanta73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Empoli27.5

Atalanta67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Empoli92.5

Atalanta27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Empoli42.5

Atalanta72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Empoli38.1

Atalanta71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Empoli26 matchesAtalanta26 matches

0.85 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲2.27 goals/match

1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲1 goals/match

0.87 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲1.75 xG/match

9.46 shots/matchShots26/26▲14.7 shots/match

2.96 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲5.69 shots/match

40.7%Possession26/26●56.7%

4.5 corners/matchCorners26/26●4.92 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Empoli13 matchesAtalanta14 matches

0.38 goals/matchGoals scored13/14▲2.14 goals/match

1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/14▲0.71 goals/match

0.67 xG/matchExpected goals13/14▲1.78 xG/match

9 shots/matchShots13/14▲14.1 shots/match

2.77 shots/matchShots on target13/14▲5 shots/match

41.5%Possession13/14●54.8%

4.62 corners/matchCorners13/14●4.64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls13/1412.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.12 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 23 Feb 2025, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4