PitchMath
Serie A · 2024

Fiorentina 1–0 Lecce · Serie A

1–0Historical match

Lecce

LWDDL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fiorentina won 1–0.

Shots
108
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.690.78
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fiorentina beat Lecce 1–0. Recorded in this match (Fiorentina – Lecce): shots 10–8, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.69–0.78, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.56 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots8 shotsFiorentina 10 shots, Lecce 8 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsFiorentina 3 shots, Lecce 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.69 xG0.78 xGFiorentina 1.69 xG, Lecce 0.78 xG
  • Possession47%53%Fiorentina 47%, Lecce 53%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersFiorentina 5 corners, Lecce 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsFiorentina 10 fouls, Lecce 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBalthazar Pierret · Lecce · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLassana Coulibaly · Lecce · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJesper Karlsson · Lecce · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 18′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNikola Krstović · Lecce · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDodô · Fiorentina · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 9′ · 0.08 xG · goalLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGaby Jean · Lecce · 49′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 86′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJesper Karlsson · Lecce · 44′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDanilo Veiga · Lecce · 86′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.54 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.75 xG. Lecce: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Robin Gosens · Fiorentina · 9′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.75 xG · Lecce 0.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Fiorentina
2Draws
1Lecce
Lecce — Fiorentina · Serie A0–6
Lecce — Fiorentina · Serie A3–2
Fiorentina — Lecce · Serie A2–2
Fiorentina — Lecce · Serie A1–0
Lecce — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fiorentina favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fiorentina27 matchesLecce27 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/270.67 goals/match
1.04 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.59 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals27/270.92 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots27/2711.5 shots/match
4.52 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/273.26 shots/match
49.9% ●Possession27/2744.7%
4.11 corners/matchCorners27/27● 4.15 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 28 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFiorentinaLecce
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2024/25
Head-to-headFiorentina — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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