PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Fri, 28 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

Lecce

LWDDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFiorentinaLecce
Shots10 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match3 shots/match
Expected goals1.69 xG/match▲0.78 xG/match
Possession47%53%●
Corners5 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Nicolò Fagioli · Fiorentina · 84′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBalthazar Pierret · Lecce · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLassana Coulibaly · Lecce · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJesper Karlsson · Lecce · 48′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 18′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNikola Krstović · Lecce · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDodô · Fiorentina · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · Fiorentina · 9′ · 0.08 xG · goalLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGaby Jean · Lecce · 49′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 86′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJesper Karlsson · Lecce · 44′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDanilo Veiga · Lecce · 86′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedAlbert Guðmundsson · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.54 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beltrán · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fiorentina: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.75 xG. Lecce: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Robin Gosens · Fiorentina · 9′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fiorentina 1.75 xG · Lecce 0.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fiorentina's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fiorentina's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Fiorentina
2Draws
1Lecce
Lecce — Fiorentina · Serie A0–6
Lecce — Fiorentina · Serie A3–2
Fiorentina — Lecce · Serie A2–2
Fiorentina — Lecce · Serie A1–0
Lecce — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Fiorentina favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 3 too close

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.67 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/271.59 goals/match
1.31 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/270.92 xG/match
1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/271.57 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2711.5 shots/match
11.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2713.9 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/273.26 shots/match
3.89 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.89 shots/match
49.9%●Possessionseason · 27/2744.7%
4.11 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/27●4.15 corners/match
4.07 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/276 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2712.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2726%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2744%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Fiorentina52.5
Lecce27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Fiorentina57.5
Lecce19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Fiorentina62.5
Lecce25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Fiorentina37.5
Lecce67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina37.5
Lecce62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Fiorentina17.5
Lecce22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Fiorentina38.8
Lecce35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Fiorentina27 matchesLecce27 matches
1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.67 goals/match
1.04 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/271.59 goals/match
1.31 xG/match▲Expected goals27/270.92 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots27/2711.5 shots/match
4.52 shots/match▲Shots on target27/273.26 shots/match
49.9%●Possession27/2744.7%
4.11 corners/matchCorners27/27●4.15 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Fiorentina14 matchesLecce14 matches
1.64 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.64 goals/match
1.07 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.5 goals/match
1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals14/140.75 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.5 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.21 shots/match
48.3%●Possession14/1443.4%
4.93 corners/match●Corners14/143.36 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 28 Feb 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFiorentinaLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Fiorentina vs Lecce — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath