PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sun, 6 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

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1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRomaJuventus
Shots11 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.09 xG/match▲0.78 xG/match
Possession41%59%●
Corners4 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Timothy Weah · Juventus · 3′ · 0.01 xG · on targetStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 52′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAngeliño · Roma · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Juventus · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEvan Ndicka · Roma · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKenan Yıldız · Juventus · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKhéphren Thuram · Juventus · 12′ · 0.04 xG · on targetManuel Locatelli · Juventus · 40′ · 0.04 xG · goalEvan Ndicka · Roma · 49′ · 0.04 xG · on targetStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedStephan El Shaarawy · Roma · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 33′ · 0.08 xG · on targetWeston McKennie · Juventus · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Juventus · 27′ · 0.14 xG · on targetWeston McKennie · Juventus · 62′ · 0.14 xG · on targetRenato Veiga · Juventus · 90′ · 0.14 xG · on targetBryan Cristante · Roma · 25′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedEldor Shomurodov · Roma · 49′ · 0.59 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.07 xG. Juventus: 11 shots, 7 on target, 0.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Eldor Shomurodov · Roma · 49′Manuel Locatelli · Juventus · 40′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 1.07 xG · Juventus 0.76 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Roma
3Draws
1Juventus
Juventus — Roma · Serie A0–0
Roma — Juventus · Serie A1–1
Juventus — Roma · Serie A1–0
Roma — Juventus · Serie A1–0
Juventus — Roma · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Juventus in 6 · 4 too close

1.48 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 31/311.52 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 31/31▲0.94 goals/match
1.47 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 31/311.36 xG/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 31/31▲0.95 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3113.4 shots/match
11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 31/31▲10.3 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/31▲5.03 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/31▲3.16 shots/match
55.4%Possessionseason · 31/31●58.8%
4.48 corners/matchCornersseason · 31/31●4.77 corners/match
3.74 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/314.42 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3112.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲48%
81%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma77.5
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma67.5
Juventus66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma60.8
Juventus83.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma57.5
Juventus17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma7.5
Juventus47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma52.5
Juventus67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma51.2
Juventus62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma31 matchesJuventus31 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored31/311.52 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲0.94 goals/match
1.47 xG/match▲Expected goals31/311.36 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots31/3113.4 shots/match
4.65 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲5.03 shots/match
55.4%Possession31/31●58.8%
4.48 corners/matchCorners31/31●4.77 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.7 fouls/matchFouls31/3112.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma16 matchesJuventus15 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored16/151.47 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/151 goals/match
1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals16/151.32 xG/match
15.2 shots/match▲Shots16/1511.6 shots/match
4.94 shots/matchShots on target16/154.93 shots/match
55.6%Possession16/15●57.3%
4.25 corners/match●Corners16/153.87 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1512.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.07 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 6 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRomaJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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