PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

Lecce

LLLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricJuventusLecce
Shots22 shots/match▲14 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.56 xG/match▲1.31 xG/match
Possession66%●34%
Corners9 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Kenan Yıldız · Juventus · 14′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 64′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTete Morente · Lecce · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 2′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKhéphren Thuram · Juventus · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLloyd Kelly · Juventus · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSantiago Pierotti · Lecce · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTimothy Weah · Juventus · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKialonda Gaspar · Lecce · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 5′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKhéphren Thuram · Juventus · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedManuel Locatelli · Juventus · 31′ · 0.03 xG · on targetManuel Locatelli · Juventus · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFederico Baschirotto · Lecce · 87′ · 0.03 xG · goalKialonda Gaspar · Lecce · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolás González · Juventus · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNikola Krstović · Lecce · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndrea Cambiaso · Juventus · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetWeston McKennie · Juventus · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKenan Yıldız · Juventus · 33′ · 0.06 xG · goalDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 38′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBalthazar Pierret · Lecce · 62′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKenan Yıldız · Juventus · 20′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDanilo Veiga · Lecce · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Juventus · 23′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRenato Veiga · Juventus · 20′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 20′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 24′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTete Morente · Lecce · 62′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedÞórir Jóhann Helgason · Lecce · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedTeun Koopmeiners · Juventus · 2′ · 0.16 xG · goalFederico Baschirotto · Lecce · 62′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 6′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedDušan Vlahović · Juventus · 37′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedAnte Rebić · Lecce · 84′ · 0.35 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Juventus: 22 shots, 7 on target, 1.58 xG. Lecce: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Teun Koopmeiners · Juventus · 2′Kenan Yıldız · Juventus · 33′Federico Baschirotto · Lecce · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Juventus 1.58 xG · Lecce 1.16 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Juventus show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsJuventus · Lecce12.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricJuventusLecceBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against10.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Juventus have recorded the higher season possession share.

59%●PossessionJuventus · Lecce44.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricJuventusLecceBaseline
Possession59%44.4%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Juventus
1Draws
0Lecce
Lecce — Juventus · Serie A1–1
Lecce — Juventus · Serie A0–3
Juventus — Lecce · Serie A1–0
Juventus — Lecce · Serie A2–1
Lecce — Juventus · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Juventus favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Lecce in 0 · 2 too close

1.53 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 32/320.72 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 32/321.63 goals/match
1.36 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 32/320.94 xG/match
0.96 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 32/321.6 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 32/3212.2 shots/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 32/3214.1 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 32/323.25 shots/match
3.16 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 32/324.97 shots/match
59%●Possessionseason · 32/3244.4%
4.91 corners/match●Cornersseason · 32/324.22 corners/match
4.41 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 32/325.94 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 32/3212.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 32/3222%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 32/3250%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Juventus92.5
Lecce15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Juventus69.2
Lecce24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Juventus84.2
Lecce19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Juventus17.5
Lecce92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Juventus47.5
Lecce42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Juventus70
Lecce32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Juventus65.6
Lecce36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Juventus32 matchesLecce32 matches
1.53 goals/match▲Goals scored32/320.72 goals/match
0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed32/321.63 goals/match
1.36 xG/match▲Expected goals32/320.94 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots32/3212.2 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on target32/323.25 shots/match
59%●Possession32/3244.4%
4.91 corners/match●Corners32/324.22 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls32/3212.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Juventus17 matchesLecce16 matches
1.59 goals/match▲Goals scored17/160.69 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/161.56 goals/match
1.4 xG/match▲Expected goals17/160.82 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots17/1611 shots/match
5.24 shots/match▲Shots on target17/163.13 shots/match
60.5%●Possession17/1643.6%
5.82 corners/match●Corners17/163.38 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.5 fouls/matchFouls17/1613.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.34 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples32 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsJuventusLecce
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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