Serie A · 2024Mon, 5 May 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Genoa

LWDLL

1–2Full-time recap

Milan

LDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Genoa	Milan
Shots	11 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.6 xG/match	0.99 xG/match▲
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	8 corners/match●	7 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.4 goals/match	0.86 goals/match	1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsGenoa · Milan14.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Genoa	Milan	Baseline
Shots	10.3 shots/match	14.9 shots/match	11.8 shots/match
Shots against	12.3 shots/match	11.5 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.6%PossessionGenoa · Milan●54.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Genoa	Milan	Baseline
Possession	45.6%	54.5%	49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa

2Draws

3Milan

15 Dec 2024Milan — Genoa · Serie A0–0

5 May 2024Milan — Genoa · Serie A3–3

7 Oct 2023Genoa — Milan · Serie A0–1

15 Apr 2022Milan — Genoa · Serie A2–0

1 Dec 2021Genoa — Milan · Serie A0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Milan in 11 · 2 too close

0.86 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/35▲1.57 goals/match

1.23 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.11 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/35▲1.69 xG/match

1.22 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.12 xG/match

10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/35▲14.9 shots/match

12.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/35▲11.5 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/35▲5.2 shots/match

4.03 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/35▲3.77 shots/match

45.6%Possessionseason · 35/35●54.5%

4.2 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/35●5.94 corners/match

5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/35▲4.14 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲34%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/35▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa32.5

Milan67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa23.3

Milan89.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa50.8

Milan65.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa12.5

Milan92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa57.5

Milan17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa30

Milan87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa33.1

Milan73.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Genoa35 matchesMilan35 matches

0.86 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲1.57 goals/match

1.23 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲1.11 goals/match

0.98 xG/matchExpected goals35/35▲1.69 xG/match

10.3 shots/matchShots35/35▲14.9 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target35/35▲5.2 shots/match

45.6%Possession35/35●54.5%

4.2 corners/matchCorners35/35●5.94 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls35/3511 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Genoa18 matchesMilan18 matches

1.06 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲1.67 goals/match

1.22 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.33 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲1.77 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots18/18▲14.1 shots/match

4.06 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲5.5 shots/match

45.9%Possession18/18●54.5%

4.5 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.61 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.34 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.34 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 5 May 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4