Serie A · 2024Fri, 9 May 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Milan

DWLWW

3–1Full-time recap

Bologna

DLWDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Milan	Bologna
Shots	10 shots/match	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.68 xG/match▲	0.63 xG/match
Possession	47%	53%●
Corners	3 corners/match	4 corners/match●
Fouls	5 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Milan: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.66 xG. Bologna: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.62 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Milan 1.66 xG · Bologna 0.62 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Milan. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.5 goals/match	1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Milan.

4 days▲Rest daysMilan · Bologna5 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Milan	Bologna	Baseline
Rest days	4 days	5 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bologna have a visible away split

moderate

Bologna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	11.2 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Milan

2Draws

1Bologna

27 Feb 2025Bologna — Milan · Serie A2–1

27 Jan 2024Milan — Bologna · Serie A2–2

21 Aug 2023Bologna — Milan · Serie A0–2

15 Apr 2023Bologna — Milan · Serie A1–1

27 Aug 2022Milan — Bologna · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Milan favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Bologna in 4 · 4 too close

1.61 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 36/361.5 goals/match

1.11 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 36/361.14 goals/match

1.69 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 36/361.29 xG/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 36/36▲0.96 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 36/3613.3 shots/match

11.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/36▲8.58 shots/match

5.19 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 36/364.61 shots/match

3.78 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 36/36▲2.78 shots/match

54.3%Possessionseason · 36/36●58.6%

5.86 corners/match●Cornersseason · 36/364.78 corners/match

4.14 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/36▲3.28 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3614 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3633%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Milan67.5

Bologna92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Milan89.2

Bologna64.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Milan67.5

Bologna84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Milan92.5

Bologna22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Milan17.5

Bologna82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Milan87.5

Bologna62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Milan72.5

Bologna67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Milan36 matchesBologna36 matches

1.61 goals/match▲Goals scored36/361.5 goals/match

1.11 goals/matchGoals allowed36/361.14 goals/match

1.69 xG/match▲Expected goals36/361.29 xG/match

14.7 shots/match▲Shots36/3613.3 shots/match

5.19 shots/match▲Shots on target36/364.61 shots/match

54.3%Possession36/36●58.6%

5.86 corners/match●Corners36/364.78 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls36/3614 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Milan18 matchesBologna18 matches

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.22 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.44 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals18/180.93 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.2 shots/match

4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.22 shots/match

54.1%Possession18/18●57.2%

6.11 corners/match●Corners18/183.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls18/1814.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples36 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 May 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4