PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sun, 4 May 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Roma

WDDWW
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRomaFiorentina
Shots12 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.63 xG/match0.96 xG/match▲
Possession41%59%●
Corners7 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Rolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedMatías Soulé · Roma · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmir Richardson · Fiorentina · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLorenzo Pellegrini · Roma · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedManu Koné · Roma · 47′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFabiano Parisi · Fiorentina · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmir Richardson · Fiorentina · 17′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 30′ · 0.03 xG · on targetZeki Çelik · Roma · 34′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEldor Shomurodov · Roma · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBryan Cristante · Roma · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmir Richardson · Fiorentina · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCher Ndour · Fiorentina · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNicolò Zaniolo · Fiorentina · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTommaso Baldanzi · Roma · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Gourna-Douath · Roma · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYacine Adli · Fiorentina · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEldor Shomurodov · Roma · 45′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNiccolò Pisilli · Roma · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRolando Mandragora · Fiorentina · 65′ · 0.16 xG · on targetMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 83′ · 0.24 xG · on targetArtem Dovbyk · Roma · 45′ · 0.25 xG · goalMoise Kean · Fiorentina · 27′ · 0.27 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Roma: 12 shots, 4 on target, 0.64 xG. Fiorentina: 13 shots, 5 on target, 0.96 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Artem Dovbyk · Roma · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Roma 0.64 xG · Fiorentina 0.96 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Roma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Roma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Roma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Roma
2Draws
2Fiorentina
Fiorentina — Roma · Serie A5–1
Fiorentina — Roma · Serie A2–2
Roma — Fiorentina · Serie A1–1
Fiorentina — Roma · Serie A2–1
Roma — Fiorentina · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Roma favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Fiorentina in 1 · 6 too close

1.43 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/35▲1.51 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 35/351 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 35/351.25 xG/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/351.05 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 35/3511.4 shots/match
11.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/3511.6 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/354.4 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/353.94 shots/match
54.2%●Possessionseason · 35/3549.9%
4.51 corners/match●Cornersseason · 35/353.8 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 35/354.29 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/3534%
83%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3577%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Roma62.5
Fiorentina52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Roma68.3
Fiorentina58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Roma62.5
Fiorentina60.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Roma67.5
Fiorentina27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Roma2.5
Fiorentina32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Roma47.5
Fiorentina12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Roma49.4
Fiorentina37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Roma35 matchesFiorentina35 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲1.51 goals/match
0.91 goals/match▲Goals allowed35/351 goals/match
1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals35/351.25 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots35/3511.4 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on target35/354.4 shots/match
54.2%●Possession35/3549.9%
4.51 corners/match●Corners35/353.8 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls35/3511.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Roma18 matchesFiorentina17 matches
1.89 goals/match▲Goals scored18/171.41 goals/match
0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/171.12 goals/match
1.52 xG/match▲Expected goals18/171.09 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots18/1710.9 shots/match
4.78 shots/match▲Shots on target18/174.18 shots/match
54.7%●Possession18/1751.8%
4.39 corners/match●Corners18/173.41 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.89 fouls/matchFouls18/1711.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.12 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.12 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 May 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRomaFiorentina
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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