PitchMath
Serie A · 2024Sun, 4 May 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Monza

LLLLL
0–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricMonzaAtalanta
Shots14 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target7 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Expected goals0.81 xG/match2.47 xG/match▲
Possession52%●48%
Corners3 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Gianluca Caprari · Monza · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavide Zappacosta · Atalanta · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedStefan Leković · Monza · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Monza · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGeorgios Kyriakopoulos · Monza · 39′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGeorgios Kyriakopoulos · Monza · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Caprari · Monza · 36′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Birindelli · Monza · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 9′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Caprari · Monza · 28′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · Monza · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetIsak Hien · Atalanta · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGeorgios Kyriakopoulos · Monza · 61′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSamuele Birindelli · Monza · 3′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMateo Retegui · Atalanta · 17′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 18′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedIsak Hien · Atalanta · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 23′ · 0.10 xG · goalDany Mota · Monza · 61′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMarco Brescianini · Atalanta · 88′ · 0.10 xG · goalMarco Brescianini · Atalanta · 88′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSamuele Vignato · Monza · 75′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAdemola Lookman · Atalanta · 47′ · 0.15 xG · goalOmari Forson · Monza · 77′ · 0.15 xG · on targetÉderson · Atalanta · 55′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedDaniel Maldini · Atalanta · 80′ · 0.52 xG · on targetCharles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 12′ · 0.55 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Monza: 14 shots, 7 on target, 0.83 xG. Atalanta: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 12′Charles De Ketelaere · Atalanta · 23′Ademola Lookman · Atalanta · 47′Marco Brescianini · Atalanta · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Monza 0.83 xG · Atalanta 2.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Monza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Monza's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Monza's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.71 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atalanta's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.94 shots/match▲ShotsMonza · Atalanta14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMonzaAtalantaBaseline
Shots8.94 shots/match14.4 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match10.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Monza have a visible home split

moderate

Monza's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season8.94 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match8.94 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Monza
0Draws
5Atalanta
Atalanta — Monza · Serie A2–0
Monza — Atalanta · Serie A1–2
Atalanta — Monza · Serie A3–0
Atalanta — Monza · Serie A5–2
Monza — Atalanta · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Monza favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Atalanta in 11 · 2 too close

0.71 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 35/35▲2.03 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/35▲0.89 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 35/35▲1.75 xG/match
1.45 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.01 xG/match
8.94 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/35▲14.4 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/35▲10.4 shots/match
2.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 35/35▲5.14 shots/match
4.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/35▲3.8 shots/match
48.2%Possessionseason · 35/35●55.6%
3.66 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/35●5.17 corners/match
5.03 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 35/35▲2.97 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3511.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
9%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲43%
54%Scoring frequencyseason · 35/35▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Monza47.5
Atalanta82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Monza5.8
Atalanta89.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Monza8.3
Atalanta75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Monza2.5
Atalanta87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Monza77.5
Atalanta37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Monza5
Atalanta77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Monza23.1
Atalanta72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Monza35 matchesAtalanta35 matches
0.71 goals/matchGoals scored35/35▲2.03 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲0.89 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goals35/35▲1.75 xG/match
8.94 shots/matchShots35/35▲14.4 shots/match
2.71 shots/matchShots on target35/35▲5.14 shots/match
48.2%Possession35/35●55.6%
3.66 corners/matchCorners35/35●5.17 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFouls35/3511.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Monza18 matchesAtalanta18 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲2.17 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲0.61 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲1.9 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots18/18▲13.9 shots/match
2.89 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲4.78 shots/match
48.9%Possession18/18●53.3%
3.83 corners/matchCorners18/18●4.78 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.76 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples35 / 35home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 May 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsMonzaAtalanta
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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