PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Thu, 28 Sept 2023, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Osasuna

LWLLD
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricOsasunaAtlético Madrid
Shots13 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.97 xG/match1.5 xG/match▲
Possession55%●45%
Corners7 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Ante Budimir · Osasuna · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChimy Ávila · Osasuna · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNahuel Molina · Atlético Madrid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 13′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLucas Torró · Osasuna · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJohan Mojica · Osasuna · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChimy Ávila · Osasuna · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 66′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavid García · Osasuna · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 20′ · 0.08 xG · goalLucas Torró · Osasuna · 55′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDavid García · Osasuna · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLucas Torró · Osasuna · 66′ · 0.13 xG · on targetJohan Mojica · Osasuna · 41′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedChimy Ávila · Osasuna · 50′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedCésar Azpilicueta · Atlético Madrid · 90′ · 0.59 xG · on targetRodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 81′ · 0.76 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Osasuna: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.97 xG. Atlético Madrid: 5 shots, 3 on target, 1.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Antoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 20′Rodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Osasuna 0.97 xG · Atlético Madrid 1.49 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Osasuna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Osasuna have a visible home split

weak

Osasuna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Atlético Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Atlético Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12 shots/match▲ShotsOsasuna · Atlético Madrid10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOsasunaAtlético MadridBaseline
Shots12 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against10.7 shots/match13 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Osasuna
0Draws
4Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid — Osasuna · La Liga3–0
Osasuna — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1
Osasuna — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–3
Atlético Madrid — Osasuna · La Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Osasuna favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 7 · 2 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 7/6▲2.5 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/6▲0.83 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/6▲1.64 xG/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/6▲0.92 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 7/610.3 shots/match
10.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 7/613 shots/match
3.43 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 7/6▲4.5 shots/match
3.29 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 7/63.67 shots/match
46.9%●Possessionseason · 7/646.7%
5 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/64.83 corners/match
4.71 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 7/66 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/612.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/6▲50%
57%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/6▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Osasuna42.5
Atlético Madrid37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Osasuna30.8
Atlético Madrid59.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Osasuna74.2
Atlético Madrid73.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Osasuna52.5
Atlético Madrid17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Osasuna17.5
Atlético Madrid30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Osasuna67.5
Atlético Madrid47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Osasuna38.1
Atlético Madrid41.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Osasuna7 matchesAtlético Madrid6 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored7/6▲2.5 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/6▲0.83 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals7/6▲1.64 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shots7/610.3 shots/match
3.43 shots/matchShots on target7/6▲4.5 shots/match
46.9%●Possession7/646.7%
5 corners/match●Corners7/64.83 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls7/612.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Osasuna4 matchesAtlético Madrid4 matches
0.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲2.25 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲1.51 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots4/49.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲4.25 shots/match
47.8%Possession4/4●49.8%
6.75 corners/match●Corners4/45 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls4/411.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.22 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.02 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 28 Sept 2023, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsOsasunaAtlético Madrid
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath