PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoMallorca
Shots19 shots/match▲9 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.3 xG/match▲1.47 xG/match
Possession61%●39%
Corners5 corners/match●0 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match20 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Florian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 51′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 73′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVedat Muriqi · Mallorca · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 51′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSamú Costa · Mallorca · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Rodríguez · Mallorca · 84′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmath Ndiaye · Mallorca · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 71′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMartin Valjent · Mallorca · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVedat Muriqi · Mallorca · 46′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVedat Muriqi · Mallorca · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 4′ · 0.07 xG · goalPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 27′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 82′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedUnai López · Rayo Vallecano · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 55′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Sánchez · Mallorca · 59′ · 0.62 xG · goalVedat Muriqi · Mallorca · 44′ · 0.63 xG · goalKike Pérez · Rayo Vallecano · 51′ · 0.67 xG · off target or blockedRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 19 shots, 5 on target, 2.34 xG. Mallorca: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.47 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 4′Radamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 90′Vedat Muriqi · Mallorca · 44′Antonio Sánchez · Mallorca · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 2.34 xG · Mallorca 1.47 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano, Mallorca. A second useful context is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano, Mallorca.

2.78 days▲Rest daysRayo Vallecano · Mallorca3.78 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRayo VallecanoMallorcaBaseline
Rest days2.78 days3.78 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

16.9 fouls/matchFoulsRayo Vallecano · Mallorca17.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoMallorcaBaseline
Fouls16.9 fouls/match17.4 fouls/match13.1 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Mallorca's recent record differs from the season

weak

Mallorca's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
3Mallorca
Mallorca — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–0
Rayo Vallecano — Mallorca · La Liga0–2
Mallorca — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Mallorca · La Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Mallorca in 3 · 3 too close

1.13 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲1.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/81.75 goals/match
1.58 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.26 xG/match
1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/81.7 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/89.75 shots/match
13 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/813.6 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.5 shots/match
5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.38 shots/match
49.1%●Possessionseason · 8/837.9%
4.25 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/83.88 corners/match
3.75 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/85.13 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
16.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/817.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano47.5
Mallorca2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano65.8
Mallorca27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano45
Mallorca29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano82.5
Mallorca57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Mallorca82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano37.5
Mallorca15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano70
Mallorca30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano8 matchesMallorca8 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.38 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
1.58 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.26 xG/match
14.1 shots/match▲Shots8/89.75 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match
49.1%●Possession8/837.9%
4.25 corners/match●Corners8/83.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
16.9 fouls/matchFouls8/817.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano4 matchesMallorca5 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/5▲1.8 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/5▲2.2 goals/match
1.67 xG/matchExpected goals4/51.7 xG/match
15.5 shots/match▲Shots4/510.4 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target4/54 shots/match
52.5%●Possession4/540%
5 corners/match●Corners4/53 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
16.5 fouls/matchFouls4/519.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.78 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.78 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Sept 2023, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoMallorca
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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