PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtlético MadridReal Sociedad
Shots14 shots/match▲13 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.36 xG/match▲1.21 xG/match
Possession37%63%●
Corners1 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Brais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 66′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 83′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAihen Muñoz · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMartín Zubimendi · Real Sociedad · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 57′ · 0.02 xG · on targetÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBrais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Llorente · Atlético Madrid · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTakefusa Kubo · Real Sociedad · 54′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBrais Méndez · Real Sociedad · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndré Silva · Real Sociedad · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArsen Zakharyan · Real Sociedad · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Riquelme · Atlético Madrid · 85′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 17′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRodrigo De Paul · Atlético Madrid · 44′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Atlético Madrid · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAxel Witsel · Atlético Madrid · 46′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 22′ · 0.19 xG · goalAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 86′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 24′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 40′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedMikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 45′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedMikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 73′ · 0.56 xG · goalAntoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 89′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Atlético Madrid: 14 shots, 5 on target, 2.38 xG. Real Sociedad: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Samuel Lino · Atlético Madrid · 22′Antoine Griezmann · Atlético Madrid · 89′Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Atlético Madrid 2.38 xG · Real Sociedad 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match2.5 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Madrid have a visible home split

weak

Atlético Madrid's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Madrid.

6.8 days▲Rest daysAtlético Madrid · Real Sociedad7.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtlético MadridReal SociedadBaseline
Rest days6.8 days7.8 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Atlético Madrid
2Draws
0Real Sociedad
Atlético Madrid — Real Sociedad · La Liga2–1
Real Sociedad — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–1
Real Sociedad — Atlético Madrid · La Liga1–2
Atlético Madrid — Real Sociedad · La Liga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Atlético Madrid favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Real Sociedad in 2 · 3 too close

2.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/91.89 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/91.33 goals/match
1.87 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/91.28 xG/match
0.94 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/91.29 xG/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/910.8 shots/match
12.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/912.2 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/93.56 shots/match
3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/94.67 shots/match
48.4%Possessionseason · 8/9●55.1%
4.38 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/94.22 corners/match
5.38 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/9▲3.44 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/917.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/933%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/9▲89%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atlético Madrid47.5
Real Sociedad77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atlético Madrid75.8
Real Sociedad40
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atlético Madrid67.5
Real Sociedad53.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atlético Madrid37.5
Real Sociedad7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid22.5
Real Sociedad85
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atlético Madrid47.5
Real Sociedad37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atlético Madrid50
Real Sociedad41.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Atlético Madrid8 matchesReal Sociedad9 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.89 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.33 goals/match
1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals8/91.28 xG/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots8/910.8 shots/match
5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/93.56 shots/match
48.4%Possession8/9●55.1%
4.38 corners/match●Corners8/94.22 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11 fouls/matchFouls8/917.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Atlético Madrid4 matchesReal Sociedad4 matches
2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/40.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match
2.23 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41 xG/match
14 shots/match▲Shots4/49.5 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.75 shots/match
47%Possession4/4●55.5%
3.75 corners/matchCorners4/4●4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/418 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.8 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Oct 2023, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtlético MadridReal Sociedad
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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