PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Almería 1–2 Las Palmas · La Liga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Las Palmas won 1–2.

Shots
1010
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.290.93
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Las Palmas beat Almería 2–1. Recorded in this match (Almería – Las Palmas): shots 10–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.29–0.93, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Las Palmas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Las Palmas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.73 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible home split

moderate

Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Las Palmas have recorded the higher season possession share.

48%PossessionAlmería · Las Palmas● 59%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAlmeríaLas PalmasBaseline
Possession48%59%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots10 shotsAlmería 10 shots, Las Palmas 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsAlmería 4 shots, Las Palmas 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.29 xG0.93 xGAlmería 0.29 xG, Las Palmas 0.93 xG
  • Possession40%60%Almería 40%, Las Palmas 60%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersAlmería 3 corners, Las Palmas 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls19 foulsAlmería 13 fouls, Las Palmas 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Léo Baptistão · Almería · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 51′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 85′ · 0.01 xG · on targetÁlex Centelles · Almería · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cardona · Las Palmas · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCésar Montes · Almería · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJavier Muñoz · Las Palmas · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMunir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSory Kaba · Las Palmas · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Almería · 73′ · 0.04 xG · goalAdrián Embarba · Almería · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 69′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSory Kaba · Las Palmas · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalSory Kaba · Las Palmas · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cardona · Las Palmas · 7′ · 0.22 xG · on targetMunir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 23′ · 0.36 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Almería: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.27 xG. Las Palmas: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Largie Ramazani · Almería · 73′Munir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 23′Sory Kaba · Las Palmas · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 0.27 xG · Las Palmas 0.95 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Almería
2Draws
0Las Palmas
Las Palmas — Almería · Segunda División1–1
Almería — Las Palmas · Segunda División1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Almería favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Las Palmas in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Almería11 matchesLas Palmas11 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored11/110.73 goals/match
2.82 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲ 0.91 goals/match
1.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals11/110.99 xG/match
13.1 shots/match ▲Shots11/1110.8 shots/match
4.82 shots/match ▲Shots on target11/113.55 shots/match
48%Possession11/11● 59%
4.55 corners/match ●Corners11/114.18 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAlmeríaLas Palmas
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headAlmería — Las Palmas
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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