PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 28 Oct 2023, 12:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAlmeríaLas Palmas
Shots10 shots/match10 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals0.29 xG/match0.93 xG/match▲
Possession40%60%●
Corners3 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match19 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Léo Baptistão · Almería · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 51′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 85′ · 0.01 xG · on targetÁlex Centelles · Almería · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cardona · Las Palmas · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCésar Montes · Almería · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJavier Muñoz · Las Palmas · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMunir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSory Kaba · Las Palmas · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Almería · 73′ · 0.04 xG · goalAdrián Embarba · Almería · 63′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 69′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSory Kaba · Las Palmas · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalSory Kaba · Las Palmas · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cardona · Las Palmas · 7′ · 0.22 xG · on targetMunir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 23′ · 0.36 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Almería: 10 shots, 4 on target, 0.27 xG. Las Palmas: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Largie Ramazani · Almería · 73′Munir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 23′Sory Kaba · Las Palmas · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 0.27 xG · Las Palmas 0.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Las Palmas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Las Palmas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Las Palmas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.73 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible home split

moderate

Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Las Palmas have recorded the higher season possession share.

48%PossessionAlmería · Las Palmas●59%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAlmeríaLas PalmasBaseline
Possession48%59%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Almería favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Las Palmas in 5 · 3 too close

1.27 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/110.73 goals/match
2.82 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲0.91 goals/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/110.99 xG/match
1.7 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.19 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 11/1110.8 shots/match
15.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 11/11▲11.8 shots/match
4.82 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 11/113.55 shots/match
6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4.27 shots/match
48%Possessionseason · 11/11●59%
4.55 corners/match●Cornersseason · 11/114.18 corners/match
5.45 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 11/115.73 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1110.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲18%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1145%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Almería45
Las Palmas92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Almería60.8
Las Palmas12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Almería4.2
Las Palmas74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Almería72.5
Las Palmas2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Almería42.5
Las Palmas15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Almería52.5
Las Palmas32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Almería56.2
Las Palmas20.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Almería11 matchesLas Palmas11 matches
1.27 goals/match▲Goals scored11/110.73 goals/match
2.82 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.91 goals/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals11/110.99 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.8 shots/match
4.82 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.55 shots/match
48%Possession11/11●59%
4.55 corners/match●Corners11/114.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13 fouls/matchFouls11/1110.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Almería6 matchesLas Palmas6 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/60.67 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1.17 goals/match
1.93 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.9 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shots6/610.8 shots/match
6.17 shots/match▲Shots on target6/63 shots/match
52.7%Possession6/6●55.8%
4.83 corners/match●Corners6/63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13 fouls/matchFouls6/610.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples11 / 11home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 28 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAlmeríaLas Palmas
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match