PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaCelta Vigo
Shots8 shots/match13 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match1 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.52 xG/match0.78 xG/match▲
Possession55%●45%
Corners5 corners/match7 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Unai Núñez · Celta Vigo · 65′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHugo Duro · Valencia · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSelim Amallah · Valencia · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJavier Guerra · Valencia · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedUnai Núñez · Celta Vigo · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedManuel Sánchez · Celta Vigo · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFran Pérez · Valencia · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJavier Guerra · Valencia · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFranco Cervi · Celta Vigo · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 82′ · 0.07 xG · on targetIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHugo Duro · Valencia · 47′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRoman Yaremchuk · Valencia · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLuca De La Torre · Celta Vigo · 74′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 39′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedHugo Duro · Valencia · 4′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Valencia: 8 shots, 0 on target, 0.53 xG. Celta Vigo: 13 shots, 1 on target, 0.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 0.53 xG · Celta Vigo 0.78 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Valencia
0Draws
0Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo — Valencia · La Liga1–2
Valencia — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–0
Valencia — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–0
Celta Vigo — Valencia · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 3 · 3 too close

1.14 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 14/141.71 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/14▲1.37 xG/match
1.07 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/141.56 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲13.6 shots/match
9.71 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1412.6 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲4.14 shots/match
3.79 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 14/144.93 shots/match
48.1%●Possessionseason · 14/1443.1%
3.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/14●5.43 corners/match
5.07 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/145.07 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1411.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
36%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/147%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1457%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia47.5
Celta Vigo17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia19.2
Celta Vigo45.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia75.8
Celta Vigo29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia12.5
Celta Vigo97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia62.5
Celta Vigo22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia5
Celta Vigo72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia23.1
Celta Vigo53.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia14 matchesCelta Vigo14 matches
1.14 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141 goals/match
1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.71 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲1.37 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots14/14▲13.6 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲4.14 shots/match
48.1%●Possession14/1443.1%
3.5 corners/matchCorners14/14●5.43 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.8 fouls/matchFouls14/1411.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia7 matchesCelta Vigo7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.43 goals/match
0.43 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.86 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.28 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.1 shots/match
3.43 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲4.57 shots/match
49.4%●Possession7/736.9%
3.71 corners/matchCorners7/7●4.29 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Nov 2023, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Valencia vs Celta Vigo — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath