PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 26 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–1Full-time recap

Osasuna

LWLLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealOsasuna
Shots10 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.52 xG/match▲1.02 xG/match
Possession45%55%●
Corners2 corners/match4 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Aimar Oroz · Osasuna · 9′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLucas Torró · Osasuna · 25′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJohan Mojica · Osasuna · 54′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJesús Areso · Osasuna · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLucas Torró · Osasuna · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAlex Baena · Villarreal · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJon Moncayola · Osasuna · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGerard Moreno · Villarreal · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosé Luis Morales · Villarreal · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosé Luis Morales · Villarreal · 44′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAimar Oroz · Osasuna · 32′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 54′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 9′ · 0.09 xG · on targetRaúl García de Haro · Osasuna · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlfonso Pedraza · Villarreal · 13′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 15′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Catena · Osasuna · 78′ · 0.11 xG · goalRubén Peña · Osasuna · 30′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMoi Gómez · Osasuna · 25′ · 0.18 xG · on targetRaúl Albiol · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJosé Luis Morales · Villarreal · 80′ · 0.24 xG · goalJuan Foyth · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedJosé Luis Morales · Villarreal · 71′ · 0.61 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 9 shots, 2 on target, 1.55 xG. Osasuna: 15 shots, 7 on target, 1.00 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′José Luis Morales · Villarreal · 71′José Luis Morales · Villarreal · 80′Alejandro Catena · Osasuna · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 1.55 xG · Osasuna 1.00 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Osasuna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Osasuna have a visible away split

moderate

Osasuna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.29 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.29 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Villarreal
0Draws
2Osasuna
Osasuna — Villarreal · La Liga0–3
Villarreal — Osasuna · La Liga2–0
Osasuna — Villarreal · La Liga1–0
Villarreal — Osasuna · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Osasuna in 4 · 5 too close

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/141.14 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/141.71 goals/match
1.37 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/141.09 xG/match
1.75 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.5 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/1411.5 shots/match
16.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲11.4 shots/match
4.14 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 14/143.43 shots/match
6.57 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲3.43 shots/match
53.9%●Possessionseason · 14/1448.1%
5.21 corners/match●Cornersseason · 14/144.21 corners/match
4.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/144.79 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1413.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲29%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal72.5
Osasuna45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal48.3
Osasuna28.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal6.7
Osasuna63.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal7.5
Osasuna32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal35
Osasuna67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal72.5
Osasuna32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal46.2
Osasuna37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal14 matchesOsasuna14 matches
1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored14/141.14 goals/match
1.79 goals/matchGoals allowed14/141.71 goals/match
1.37 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.09 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots14/1411.5 shots/match
4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.43 shots/match
53.9%●Possession14/1448.1%
5.21 corners/match●Corners14/144.21 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1413.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal8 matchesOsasuna7 matches
1.75 goals/match▲Goals scored8/71.43 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed8/7▲1.86 goals/match
1.6 xG/match▲Expected goals8/70.9 xG/match
12.9 shots/match▲Shots8/79.29 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/73.14 shots/match
54.8%●Possession8/747%
6.13 corners/match●Corners8/73 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.8 fouls/matchFouls8/713.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114.8 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealOsasuna
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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