La Liga · 2023Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Deportivo Alavés

LWLWD

0–1Full-time recap

Las Palmas

WWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Las Palmas
Shots	19 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.92 xG/match▲	0.38 xG/match
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	12 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	13 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Las Palmas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Las Palmas have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Las Palmas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Las Palmas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.88 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Las Palmas have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.7%PossessionDeportivo Alavés · Las Palmas●59.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.6 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Las Palmas	Baseline
Possession	42.7%	59.3%	48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Las Palmas show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Las Palmas's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsDeportivo Alavés · Las Palmas10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Las Palmas	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	10.8 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Deportivo Alavés favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Las Palmas in 2 · 4 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/160.88 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲0.81 goals/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/160.89 xG/match

1.16 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 16/161.22 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1610.6 shots/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1612.3 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/163.44 shots/match

3.75 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/164.38 shots/match

42.7%Possessionseason · 16/16●59.3%

4.94 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/164.06 corners/match

3.69 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/166.13 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/16▲25%

56%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1656%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Deportivo Alavés12.5

Las Palmas92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Deportivo Alavés37.5

Las Palmas15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Deportivo Alavés73.3

Las Palmas60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Deportivo Alavés92.5

Las Palmas2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés45

Las Palmas12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés62.5

Las Palmas32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Deportivo Alavés51.2

Las Palmas18.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Deportivo Alavés16 matchesLas Palmas16 matches

0.88 goals/matchGoals scored16/160.88 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲0.81 goals/match

1.3 xG/match▲Expected goals16/160.89 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.6 shots/match

3.94 shots/match▲Shots on target16/163.44 shots/match

42.7%Possession16/16●59.3%

4.94 corners/match●Corners16/164.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Deportivo Alavés8 matchesLas Palmas9 matches

1.25 goals/match▲Goals scored8/90.67 goals/match

1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed8/9▲1 goals/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals8/90.76 xG/match

14.8 shots/match▲Shots8/910.6 shots/match

4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/92.78 shots/match

42.4%Possession8/9●56.7%

5.88 corners/match●Corners8/93.33 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls8/910.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.71 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4