PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Rayo Vallecano 0–1 Valencia · La Liga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Valencia won 0–1.

Shots
78
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.310.26
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Valencia beat Rayo Vallecano 1–0. Recorded in this match (Rayo Vallecano – Valencia): shots 7–8, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.31–0.26, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.89 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.2 goals/match0.89 goals/match1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Rayo Vallecano, Valencia.

3.92 days ▲Rest daysRayo Vallecano · Valencia2.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricRayo VallecanoValenciaBaseline
Rest days3.92 days2.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Rayo Vallecano have a visible home split

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots8 shotsRayo Vallecano 7 shots, Valencia 8 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsRayo Vallecano 1 shot, Valencia 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.31 xG0.26 xGRayo Vallecano 0.31 xG, Valencia 0.26 xG
  • Possession59%41%Rayo Vallecano 59%, Valencia 41%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerRayo Vallecano 7 corners, Valencia 1 corner
  • Fouls16 fouls18 foulsRayo Vallecano 16 fouls, Valencia 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pepelu · Valencia · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDiego López · Valencia · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSelim Amallah · Valencia · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSelim Amallah · Valencia · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSergi Canós · Valencia · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSergi Canós · Valencia · 61′ · 0.04 xG · goalHugo Duro · Valencia · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDiego López · Valencia · 31′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 11′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.33 xG. Valencia: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.250.50′HT90′Sergi Canós · Valencia · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 0.33 xG · Valencia 0.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Rayo Vallecano
3Draws
0Valencia
Valencia — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1
Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Valencia · La Liga1–1
Valencia — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rayo Vallecano favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Valencia in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano18 matchesValencia18 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 1.06 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.22 goals/match
1.19 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/180.97 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots18/189.72 shots/match
4.83 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.33 shots/match
47.3% ●Possession18/1844.8%
4.06 corners/match ●Corners18/183.11 corners/match
16.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 19 Dec 2023, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRayo VallecanoValencia
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headRayo Vallecano — Valencia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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