La Liga · 2023Wed, 20 Dec 2023, 20:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Villarreal

LWDLL

3–2Full-time recap

Celta Vigo

LDDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Villarreal	Celta Vigo
Shots	12 shots/match	15 shots/match▲
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	2.37 xG/match▲	1.28 xG/match
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	4 corners/match	7 corners/match●
Fouls	16 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Villarreal: 12 shots, 8 on target, 2.46 xG. Celta Vigo: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 2.46 xG · Celta Vigo 1.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Villarreal. A second useful context is: Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Villarreal.

3.02 days▲Rest daysVillarreal · Celta Vigo4.31 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Villarreal	Celta Vigo	Baseline
Rest days	3.02 days	4.31 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.5 shots/match	11 shots/match	12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.12 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Villarreal

2Draws

0Celta Vigo

30 Apr 2023Villarreal — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–1

13 Jan 2023Celta Vigo — Villarreal · La Liga1–1

12 Mar 2022Villarreal — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–0

20 Nov 2021Celta Vigo — Villarreal · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 7 · 3 too close

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181 goals/match

1.94 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.56 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.36 xG/match

1.74 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 18/18▲1.46 xG/match

11 shots/matchShotsseason · 18/18▲13.7 shots/match

16.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 18/18▲11.9 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 18/184.22 shots/match

6.39 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲4.67 shots/match

52.1%●Possessionseason · 18/1844.4%

4.78 corners/matchCornersseason · 18/18●5.72 corners/match

5.39 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 18/18▲4.72 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/18▲17%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1861%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal67.5

Celta Vigo22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal45.8

Celta Vigo50.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal5.8

Celta Vigo35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal7.5

Celta Vigo92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal52.5

Celta Vigo32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal62.5

Celta Vigo80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal46.2

Celta Vigo59.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal18 matchesCelta Vigo18 matches

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181 goals/match

1.94 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲1.56 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.36 xG/match

11 shots/matchShots18/18▲13.7 shots/match

4.17 shots/matchShots on target18/184.22 shots/match

52.1%●Possession18/1844.4%

4.78 corners/matchCorners18/18●5.72 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal10 matchesCelta Vigo9 matches

1.7 goals/match▲Goals scored10/91.33 goals/match

2.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/9▲1.78 goals/match

1.74 xG/match▲Expected goals10/91.16 xG/match

13.5 shots/match▲Shots10/911.6 shots/match

4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target10/94.33 shots/match

53.8%●Possession10/938.6%

5.8 corners/match●Corners10/94.22 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/911.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3.02 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.31 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 21 Dec 2023, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4