PitchMath
La Liga · 2023

Real Madrid 3–2 Almería · La Liga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 3–2.

Shots
1810
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
2.250.89
Possession
74%26%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Almería 3–2. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Almería): shots 18–10, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 2.25–0.89, possession 74%–26%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.7 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · Almería12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridAlmeríaBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Almería have a visible away split

moderate

Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

weak

Almería's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots10 shotsReal Madrid 18 shots, Almería 10 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsReal Madrid 6 shots, Almería 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.25 xG0.89 xGReal Madrid 2.25 xG, Almería 0.89 xG
  • Possession74%26%Real Madrid 74%, Almería 26%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersReal Madrid 6 corners, Almería 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls17 foulsReal Madrid 9 fouls, Almería 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Edgar González · Almería · 43′ · 0.01 xG · goalChumi · Almería · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSergio Akieme · Almería · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 67′ · 0.09 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLargie Ramazani · Almería · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 60′ · 0.13 xG · on targetSergio Arribas · Almería · 24′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 81′ · 0.25 xG · on targetDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.32 xG · goalLargie Ramazani · Almería · 1′ · 0.38 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 18 shots, 6 on target, 2.29 xG. Almería: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 57′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 67′Dani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 90′Largie Ramazani · Almería · 1′Edgar González · Almería · 43′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.29 xG · Almería 0.88 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Real Madrid
0Draws
0Almería
Almería — Real Madrid · La Liga1–3
Real Madrid — Almería · La Liga4–2
Almería — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Almería in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid20 matchesAlmería21 matches
2.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/211 goal/match
0.65 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/212.19 goals/match
1.79 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/211.32 xG/match
16.7 shots/match ▲Shots20/2112.5 shots/match
6.3 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/214.14 shots/match
60.1% ●Possession20/2146.6%
6.25 corners/match ●Corners20/214.81 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls20/2112.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridAlmería
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2023/24
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Almería
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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