PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
3–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridAlmería
Shots18 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals2.25 xG/match▲0.89 xG/match
Possession74%●26%
Corners6 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Edgar González · Almería · 43′ · 0.01 xG · goalChumi · Almería · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSergio Akieme · Almería · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAurélien Tchouaméni · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 53′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 67′ · 0.09 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLargie Ramazani · Almería · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 60′ · 0.13 xG · on targetSergio Arribas · Almería · 24′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 81′ · 0.25 xG · on targetDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.32 xG · goalLargie Ramazani · Almería · 1′ · 0.38 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 18 shots, 6 on target, 2.29 xG. Almería: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 57′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 67′Dani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 90′Largie Ramazani · Almería · 1′Edgar González · Almería · 43′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 2.29 xG · Almería 0.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.7 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Almería12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridAlmeríaBaseline
Shots16.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match15.8 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Almería have a visible away split

moderate

Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match12.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

weak

Almería's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Real Madrid
0Draws
0Almería
Almería — Real Madrid · La Liga1–3
Real Madrid — Almería · La Liga4–2
Almería — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Almería in 0 · 2 too close

2.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/211 goals/match
0.65 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/212.19 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/211.32 xG/match
0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/211.74 xG/match
16.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2112.5 shots/match
10.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2115.8 shots/match
6.3 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/214.14 shots/match
2.95 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/215.14 shots/match
60.1%●Possessionseason · 20/2146.6%
6.25 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/214.81 corners/match
3.35 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/215.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2112.5 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/2114%
95%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2167%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid92.5
Almería37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid94.2
Almería43.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid94.2
Almería5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid82.5
Almería62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid7.5
Almería32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5
Almería67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid72.5
Almería50.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid20 matchesAlmería21 matches
2.15 goals/match▲Goals scored20/211 goals/match
0.65 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/212.19 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals20/211.32 xG/match
16.7 shots/match▲Shots20/2112.5 shots/match
6.3 shots/match▲Shots on target20/214.14 shots/match
60.1%●Possession20/2146.6%
6.25 corners/match●Corners20/214.81 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.5 fouls/matchFouls20/2112.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid10 matchesAlmería11 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored10/111 goals/match
0.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/112.55 goals/match
2.2 xG/match▲Expected goals10/111.01 xG/match
18.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1110 shots/match
7.4 shots/match▲Shots on target10/113.27 shots/match
63.3%●Possession10/1141.3%
7.3 corners/match●Corners10/115 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1111.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

17.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.09 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples20 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridAlmería
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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