La Liga · 2023Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Las Palmas

DLLWW

1–2Full-time recap

Real Madrid

DWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Las Palmas	Real Madrid
Shots	7 shots/match	13 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.73 xG/match	2.3 xG/match▲
Possession	53%●	47%
Corners	1 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	17 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Las Palmas: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.72 xG. Real Madrid: 13 shots, 5 on target, 2.32 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Las Palmas 0.72 xG · Real Madrid 2.32 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Las Palmas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Las Palmas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Las Palmas's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.91 shots/match▲ShotsLas Palmas · Real Madrid16.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Las Palmas	Real Madrid	Baseline
Shots	9.91 shots/match	16.5 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	13.2 shots/match	10.3 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Las Palmas

0Draws

1Real Madrid

27 Sept 2023Real Madrid — Las Palmas · La Liga2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Las Palmas favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11 · 2 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/21▲2.14 goals/match

0.86 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/21▲0.67 goals/match

0.83 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/21▲1.81 xG/match

1.51 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/21▲0.97 xG/match

9.91 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/21▲16.5 shots/match

13.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/21▲10.3 shots/match

3.23 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/21▲6.24 shots/match

4.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/21▲2.9 shots/match

57.9%Possessionseason · 22/21●59.5%

3.68 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/21●6.24 corners/match

6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/21▲3.24 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2110.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

27%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/21▲48%

64%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/21▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Las Palmas87.5

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Las Palmas15.8

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Las Palmas52.5

Real Madrid94.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Las Palmas2.5

Real Madrid82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Las Palmas22.5

Real Madrid7.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Las Palmas7.5

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Las Palmas12.5

Real Madrid71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Las Palmas22 matchesReal Madrid21 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored22/21▲2.14 goals/match

0.86 goals/matchGoals allowed22/21▲0.67 goals/match

0.83 xG/matchExpected goals22/21▲1.81 xG/match

9.91 shots/matchShots22/21▲16.5 shots/match

3.23 shots/matchShots on target22/21▲6.24 shots/match

57.9%Possession22/21●59.5%

3.68 corners/matchCorners22/21●6.24 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls22/2110.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Las Palmas11 matchesReal Madrid11 matches

1.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.82 goals/match

0.82 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲0.73 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲1.46 xG/match

9.82 shots/matchShots11/11▲14.4 shots/match

3.64 shots/matchShots on target11/11▲5.18 shots/match

59.7%●Possession11/1156%

4.45 corners/matchCorners11/11●5.27 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples22 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4