PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Fri, 26 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAlmeríaDeportivo Alavés
Shots19 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Expected goals1.46 xG/match1.87 xG/match▲
Possession64%●36%
Corners11 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Léo Baptistão · Almería · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJavi López · Deportivo Alavés · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCésar Montes · Almería · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRubén Duarte · Deportivo Alavés · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 32′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAdrián Embarba · Almería · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGonzalo Melero · Almería · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJavi López · Deportivo Alavés · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnder Guevara · Deportivo Alavés · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJon Guridi · Deportivo Alavés · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLucas Robertone · Almería · 60′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMarko Milovanović · Almería · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDion Lopy · Almería · 18′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 74′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 34′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSergio Arribas · Almería · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 48′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDion Lopy · Almería · 28′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 88′ · 0.10 xG · goalSamu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 32′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedCarlos Vicente · Deportivo Alavés · 47′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedSamu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 32′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedGonzalo Melero · Almería · 67′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLázaro · Almería · 78′ · 0.21 xG · on targetAdrián Embarba · Almería · 60′ · 0.40 xG · on targetSamu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 10′ · 0.42 xG · goalLuis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés · 52′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Almería: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.45 xG. Deportivo Alavés: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Samu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 10′Luis Rioja · Deportivo Alavés · 52′Samu Aghehowa · Deportivo Alavés · 88′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 1.45 xG · Deportivo Alavés 1.92 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Deportivo Alavés's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible home split

moderate

Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.6 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Deportivo Alavés show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Deportivo Alavés's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsAlmería · Deportivo Alavés12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAlmeríaDeportivo AlavésBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against15.5 shots/match11.5 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Almería
0Draws
1Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés — Almería · La Liga1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Almería favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Alavés in 6 · 5 too close

0.95 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/221 goals/match
2.23 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.23 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/221.31 xG/match
1.75 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.18 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/2212.7 shots/match
15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/22▲11.5 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/223.77 shots/match
5.05 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/22▲3.91 shots/match
47.4%●Possessionseason · 22/2241.8%
5.09 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/224.5 corners/match
5.55 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲4.14 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2213.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/22▲23%
64%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 22/2259%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Almería37.5
Deportivo Alavés7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Almería44.2
Deportivo Alavés34.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Almería7.5
Deportivo Alavés62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Almería72.5
Deportivo Alavés97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Almería37.5
Deportivo Alavés52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Almería67.5
Deportivo Alavés45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Almería55
Deportivo Alavés43.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Almería22 matchesDeportivo Alavés22 matches
0.95 goals/matchGoals scored22/221 goals/match
2.23 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲1.23 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals22/221.31 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots22/2212.7 shots/match
4.27 shots/match▲Shots on target22/223.77 shots/match
47.4%●Possession22/2241.8%
5.09 corners/match●Corners22/224.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.7 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Almería11 matchesDeportivo Alavés12 matches
0.91 goals/matchGoals scored11/120.92 goals/match
1.91 goals/matchGoals allowed11/12▲1.33 goals/match
1.64 xG/match▲Expected goals11/121.16 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots11/1211.8 shots/match
5.27 shots/match▲Shots on target11/123.67 shots/match
53.5%●Possession11/1241%
5.18 corners/match●Corners11/123.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.6 fouls/matchFouls11/1212.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 27 Jan 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAlmeríaDeportivo Alavés
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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