La Liga · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Deportivo Alavés

DWWWL

1–1Full-time recap

Villarreal

LLDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Villarreal
Shots	17 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	1.79 xG/match▲	1.24 xG/match
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	10 corners/match●	9 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Deportivo Alavés: 17 shots, 4 on target, 1.81 xG. Villarreal: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Deportivo Alavés 1.81 xG · Villarreal 1.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Deportivo Alavés's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Alavés's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1 goals/match	1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal have a visible away split

moderate

Villarreal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.17 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.17 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Deportivo Alavés show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Deportivo Alavés's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match▲ShotsDeportivo Alavés · Villarreal11.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Villarreal	Baseline
Shots	12.9 shots/match	11.8 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	11.5 shots/match	15.4 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Deportivo Alavés

1Draws

1Villarreal

22 Oct 2023Villarreal — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga1–1

30 Apr 2022Deportivo Alavés — Villarreal · La Liga2–1

21 Dec 2021Villarreal — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga5–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Deportivo Alavés favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 4 · 2 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲1.42 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.92 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/24▲1.45 xG/match

1.19 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.67 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2411.8 shots/match

11.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2415.4 shots/match

3.71 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲4.21 shots/match

3.96 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/246 shots/match

41.9%Possessionseason · 24/24●51%

5.08 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/245.04 corners/match

4.38 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/245.54 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2413 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

21%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2413%

63%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲83%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Deportivo Alavés7.5

Villarreal62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Deportivo Alavés44.2

Villarreal54.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Deportivo Alavés62.5

Villarreal5.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Deportivo Alavés97.5

Villarreal27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés52.5

Villarreal47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés62.5

Villarreal57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Deportivo Alavés55

Villarreal48.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Deportivo Alavés24 matchesVillarreal24 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲1.42 goals/match

1.29 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.92 goals/match

1.32 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲1.45 xG/match

12.9 shots/match▲Shots24/2411.8 shots/match

3.71 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲4.21 shots/match

41.9%Possession24/24●51%

5.08 corners/match●Corners24/245.04 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls24/2413 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Deportivo Alavés12 matchesVillarreal12 matches

1.08 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.33 goals/match

1.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/122 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.2 xG/match

14.1 shots/match▲Shots12/129.17 shots/match

3.75 shots/matchShots on target12/123.83 shots/match

42.8%Possession12/12●48.1%

6.42 corners/match●Corners12/123.83 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.5 fouls/matchFouls12/1213 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4