PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal MadridGirona FC
Shots16 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals3.21 xG/match▲0.28 xG/match
Possession53%●47%
Corners0 corners/match2 corners/match●
Fouls9 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Miguel Gutiérrez · Girona FC · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 6′ · 0.02 xG · goalFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 23′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAleix García · Girona FC · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 54′ · 0.03 xG · on targetViktor Tsygankov · Girona FC · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFran García · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYan Couto · Girona FC · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 32′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 60′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 61′ · 0.16 xG · goalArtem Dovbyk · Girona FC · 7′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 35′ · 0.62 xG · goalJoselu · Real Madrid · 90′ · 0.82 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 54′ · 0.90 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 16 shots, 6 on target, 3.27 xG. Girona FC: 5 shots, 0 on target, 0.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 6′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 35′Jude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 54′Rodrygo · Real Madrid · 61′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 3.27 xG · Girona FC 0.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Girona FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Girona FC's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Girona FC's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match2.17 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.5 shots/match▲ShotsReal Madrid · Girona FC12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridGirona FCBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Real Madrid
1Draws
1Girona FC
Girona FC — Real Madrid · La Liga0–3
Girona FC — Real Madrid · La Liga4–2
Real Madrid — Girona FC · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Madrid favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Girona FC in 0 · 3 too close

2.17 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/242.17 goals/match
0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 24/241.21 goals/match
1.88 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 24/241.71 xG/match
0.94 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 24/241.44 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2412.6 shots/match
10.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2414.1 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/244.83 shots/match
2.83 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/244.63 shots/match
59%●Possessionseason · 24/2456.4%
5.79 corners/match●Cornersseason · 24/244.5 corners/match
3.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/244.5 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2411.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/2433%
96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2483%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Madrid87.5
Girona FC82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Madrid95
Girona FC75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Madrid94.2
Girona FC36.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Madrid87.5
Girona FC17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid2.5
Girona FC22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Madrid92.5
Girona FC47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Madrid71.2
Girona FC50
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Madrid24 matchesGirona FC24 matches
2.17 goals/matchGoals scored24/242.17 goals/match
0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed24/241.21 goals/match
1.88 xG/match▲Expected goals24/241.71 xG/match
16.5 shots/match▲Shots24/2412.6 shots/match
6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target24/244.83 shots/match
59%●Possession24/2456.4%
5.79 corners/match●Corners24/244.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls24/2411.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Madrid12 matchesGirona FC12 matches
2.5 goals/match▲Goals scored12/121.83 goals/match
0.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.25 goals/match
2.26 xG/match▲Expected goals12/121.77 xG/match
18.5 shots/match▲Shots12/1212.2 shots/match
7 shots/match▲Shots on target12/124.17 shots/match
61.8%●Possession12/1253.7%
6.25 corners/match●Corners12/124.5 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.25 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal MadridGirona FC
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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