La Liga · 2023Fri, 1 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

LWLLD

1–0Full-time recap

Almería

LLDDD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Almería
Shots	15 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	0 shots/match
Expected goals	1.48 xG/match▲	0.11 xG/match
Possession	67%●	33%
Corners	7 corners/match●	0 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	14 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Celta Vigo: 15 shots, 6 on target, 1.47 xG. Almería: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 1.47 xG · Almería 0.11 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	1.11 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible away split

moderate

Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.1 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.1 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsCelta Vigo · Almería12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Celta Vigo	Almería	Baseline
Shots	12.5 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	12.3 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Celta Vigo

1Draws

1Almería

1 Sept 2023Almería — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–3

2 Apr 2023Celta Vigo — Almería · La Liga2–2

29 Oct 2022Almería — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Almería in 0 · 5 too close

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.93 goals/match

1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/272.04 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/271.26 xG/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/271.69 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/2712.3 shots/match

12.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2715.3 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/274.07 shots/match

4.3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/275.15 shots/match

44.1%Possessionseason · 27/27●46.2%

5.11 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/274.74 corners/match

5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.78 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2713.4 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2715%

67%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2763%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo22.5

Almería32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo49.2

Almería34.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo40.8

Almería5.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo92.5

Almería77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo37.5

Almería62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo67.5

Almería52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo53.8

Almería50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo27 matchesAlmería27 matches

1.11 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.93 goals/match

1.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/272.04 goals/match

1.26 xG/matchExpected goals27/271.26 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots27/2712.3 shots/match

4.19 shots/matchShots on target27/274.07 shots/match

44.1%Possession27/27●46.2%

5.11 corners/match●Corners27/274.74 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.5 fouls/matchFouls27/2713.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo14 matchesAlmería14 matches

0.71 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲0.93 goals/match

1.21 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/142.29 goals/match

1.42 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.04 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots14/1410.1 shots/match

4.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.14 shots/match

48.8%●Possession14/1441.4%

6.64 corners/match●Corners14/144.64 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.29 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4