La Liga · 2023Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Valencia

WLWLD

2–2Full-time recap

Real Madrid

WDWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Valencia	Real Madrid
Shots	12 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.15 xG/match	2.21 xG/match▲
Possession	29%	71%●
Corners	2 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	19 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Valencia: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.18 xG. Real Madrid: 10 shots, 5 on target, 2.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 1.18 xG · Real Madrid 2.16 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.19 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Valencia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.65 shots/match▲ShotsValencia · Real Madrid16 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Valencia	Real Madrid	Baseline
Shots	9.65 shots/match	16 shots/match	12.4 shots/match
Shots against	9.46 shots/match	9.85 shots/match	12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.7%PossessionValencia · Real Madrid●59.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.9 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Valencia	Real Madrid	Baseline
Possession	43.7%	59.6%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Valencia

0Draws

4Real Madrid

11 Nov 2023Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga5–1

21 May 2023Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga1–0

2 Feb 2023Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga2–0

8 Jan 2022Real Madrid — Valencia · La Liga4–1

19 Sept 2021Valencia — Real Madrid · La Liga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 3 too close

1.19 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/27▲2.07 goals/match

1.19 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/27▲0.67 goals/match

1.07 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 26/27▲1.83 xG/match

1.19 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 26/27▲0.95 xG/match

9.65 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/27▲16 shots/match

9.46 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/279.85 shots/match

3.42 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/27▲6.11 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/27▲2.85 shots/match

43.7%Possessionseason · 26/27●59.6%

3.08 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/27●5.85 corners/match

4.62 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/27▲3.26 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2710.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

31%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/27▲48%

69%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/27▲96%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia17.5

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia21.7

Real Madrid90.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia74.2

Real Madrid95.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia7.5

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia57.5

Real Madrid2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia2.5

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia18.8

Real Madrid70

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia26 matchesReal Madrid27 matches

1.19 goals/matchGoals scored26/27▲2.07 goals/match

1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed26/27▲0.67 goals/match

1.07 xG/matchExpected goals26/27▲1.83 xG/match

9.65 shots/matchShots26/27▲16 shots/match

3.42 shots/matchShots on target26/27▲6.11 shots/match

43.7%Possession26/27●59.6%

3.08 corners/matchCorners26/27●5.85 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls26/2710.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia13 matchesReal Madrid14 matches

1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/14▲1.79 goals/match

0.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/140.79 goals/match

1.23 xG/matchExpected goals13/14▲1.53 xG/match

10.6 shots/matchShots13/14▲13.9 shots/match

3.69 shots/matchShots on target13/14▲5.36 shots/match

45.8%Possession13/14●57.5%

3.62 corners/matchCorners13/14●5.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1410.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4